AUDJPY has seen a gradual ascent to fresh highs from April 2019. Price action has led to the pair trading towards the 78.6% Fibonacci handle of the 59.80-83.86 bullish leg.
However, a bearish divergence witnessed on the momentum indicator looks to a slow-down on the rise. The levels are expected to move towards the 61.8% and then 50% Fibonacci Retracement.
Trading between the Tenkan and Kijun lines will then see prices being driven towards the Ichimoku cloud. Should the cloud be avoided, we could then see another move to the upside.
The daily chart looks to a false break on the multi-month high. The current bias looks to the downside. The momentum indicator confirms the expected shift and we now look to the long-term 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Further weakness in the pair then sees prices moving past the Kijun and Tenkan line and into the Ichimoku cloud. This would validate more shorts and bring momentum to the downside towards the 38.2% – 50% Fibonacci confluence lines.
The short-term outlook could suggest another upside leg once a bounce has occurred on the confluence levels. Then, another attempt at fresh highs to the $80 area will come into play.