EURTRY rose to a 2-year high on June 22. The top at the 8.00 psychological level formed a firm resistance (psyres).
The record high at 8.2051 is likely to be revisited shortly. However, a valid breakout of the said resistance must be seen prior to the bullish move.
For the upside, we focus on a potential confluence between the regression standard deviation extension and the record high.
With price and indicator evidence showing clear signs of an upward bias, we remain optimistic over the sustainability of the bullish trend. However, expectations of a short-term lira recovery are high.
That said, we are lacking a clear break above the median regression. This is near the 7.80 resistance at the current market. The test suggests that bears could take control until a fresh short-term low is reached.
A firm initial base awaits at the confluence support near 7.61. This is expected to form from a Fibonacci-regression combination. The 127.6% Fibonacci extension of the latest upside lays at 7.61. In addition, this is the level the upper long-term regression lays.
A break above the median regression will improve the broad bullish bias. Whereas a break of the 7.61 confluence level will increase the chances of a deeper pullback.