Muted Gold Shifts Safe-Haven Status to Silver?
Gold and silver moved up hand-in-hand until Wednesday. The precious metals were being heavily influenced by macroeconomics, more so than geopolitics, closer to the second half of the week.
On Thursday and intraday Friday, silver holds a better stance against the dollar compared to the somewhat muted gold.
This could remain the case as the US calendar is rather light for the rest of today’s trading session.
GOLD Mid-Week Bulishness Reversed on Positive US Manufacturing and House Data
Without fresh geopolitical flare-ups around the US-Sino trade deal, the marketplace decided to focus on risk appetite early in the week. Halfway through, safe havens were moving with an upbeat bias. This came on the back of weaker oil – i.e. risk – and a re-escalation of the Hong Kong drama.
The US passed a bill supporting human rights in Hong Kong unanimously. This angered China, who, in return, requested a tariff rollback extension to May 2020. Once again, another US slap dented the optimism of a phase-1 deal. The US turned the Hong-Kong matter into yet another weapon with which to pressurize China to “step up” to a trade deal.
Closer to the end of the week, gold received some sizeable take-profit bears. This was thanks to major developments supporting the geopolitical front early in the week waning off.
In fact, gold’s slide was also supported by the release of an upbeat Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Wednesday. It slipped lower on Thursday after the US reported positive results on Existing Home Sales.
At the time of writing, gold is biased to the upside. Participants seem to be wanting clarity on trade weeks ahead Dec 15th tariffs increase rather than Gordon Sondland’s impeachment hearing. However, prices remain stable and are likely to close mixed.
XAUUSD Looking Muted as US Macros Offset Geo-Related Gains
Apart from the weekly price action, indicators suggest that gold could remain under pressure in the medium-term.
After the $1478 top was taken out markets slid, suggesting the completion of subminuette wave 4. We could expect correction before we start seeing further downside moves. However, it could be deep, or even revisit the previous top. The latter could form a triple complex correction.
Bears need to focus on whether a successful break below $1456 occurs or whether a retest is seen.
Silver Gains Traction As Gold Hangs on Trade War Resolution
With the markets ignoring the impeachment headlines, silver seems to be gaining some traction. Especially as gold remains the subject of a battle between macros and geopolitics.
From a sentiment perspective, the trade war saga makes equity markets more cautious. And that should add longs in the precious metals! With US data pushing gold down and safe-havens waiting for clarity, market participants are jumping ship.
The OECD reported a slightly lower forecast in the global 2020 and 2021 GDP too overnight. This makes the case for silver bets a little more approachable.
XAGUSD Bullishness Near Breakout Levels Hints to Further Upside
The $17.20 level is a top that has helped activity stay particularly busy. Prices could head down for another bearish wave, completing the corrective impulse lower. However, the chances are slim as fresh highs keep being registered.
In fact, the second downside leg has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of waves a and b. This makes the upside scenario more likely.
Should markets experience a successful breakout above $17.40, this could make the end of the minor correction 2.