US Manufacturing Falls Again
The US dollar has a more muted session over the European morning on Tuesday, following the gains of recent days. ISM manufacturing data released yesterday highlighted further weakness in the sector, boosting expectations for Fed easing. The recent successful meeting between Trump and Xi has helped offset some of the weakness as traders are once again hopeful of the two countries agreeing on a trade deal. USD index trades 96.36 last having found resistance at the 96.41 level again.
EUR Under Pressure
EURUSD remains under pressure today. A resurgent US dollar over recent days has kept the single currency well offered. This in line with recent commentary from the ECB pointing to the likely need for fresh easing in light of the ongoing economic downturn. EURUSD trades 1.1288 last after breaking down below the 1.1324 level.
GBP Down, Carney on Watch
GBPUSD remains pressured today also, with price continuing to slide back below the 1.2641 level. Traders will be watching for comments for from BOE’s Carney who speaks later today. The BOE recently reaffirmed the two-way risks stemming from Brexit noting that the risk of a no deal Brexit has risen.
Risk Appetite Softens Following Rally
Risk assets have posted a small rally so far today after falling back a little from the recent move to fresh all-time highs. The SPX500 trades 2960.28 last after topping out at 2977.28 in response to news of the Trump-Xi meeting. The prospect of a trade deal between the US and China should keep equities well supported in the near term, though any disappointing headlines noting a deterioration in relations could see sharp moves to the downside.
Gold & JPY Rally
Safe havens have been clear winners so far today with both gold and the Japanese yen rising against the US dollar in light of current weakness in equities markets. USDJPY trades 108.23 last with price capped by the 108.51 level for now. XAUUSD is sitting right back on the 1391.23 level, for now, having managed to climb back above following a dip below the level shortly after the open this week.
Oil Awaits Fresh Drivers
Oil prices have had a subdued day so far, with crude retracing earlier gains on the session. The prospect of a trade deal between the US and China, which is the largest consumer of oil, is good news for crude prices. Last year, the ballooning trade war weighed heavily on crude which only recovered following the truce agreed at the November G20 meeting last year. Crude trades 59.11 last, with recent upside capped by the 59.77 level.
Commodity Currencies Hit Pause
USDCAD has been a little lower so far today also. The pair remains caught between opposing themes of recent USD strength and recent oil strength, though both of these factors have weakened over early trading so far today. USDCAD trades 1.3120 last with price sitting back above the 1.3070 level support which was briefly pierced last week.
AUDUSD has been a little weaker today, though remains well supported given the latest rate cut by the RBA overnight. The bank cut its headline rate by a further .25%, now sitting at record lows of 1%, citing rising unemployment and a slowing economy as the need for a further move on rates. AUDUSD trades .6981 last, with price now back under the .70 level which was broken to the topside last week.