Dollar Pauses Ahead of PMIs
USD has fallen back a little over the European morning today, tempering the gains seen yesterday as the market reacted with relief to news that Trump agreed on a budget deal with congress. For now, USD remains well supported, sitting firmly above the 97.11 level which should provide support if retested. A raft of US PMIs will provide today’s US data focus for the session ahead. Any downside surprises are likely to take on sharper focus ahead of the FOMC next week.
Data Weighs on EUR Ahead of ECB
EURUSD has broken lower again today in response to a raft of weaker than expected Eurozone and German PMI data sets. Further data weakness has compounded expectations that the ECB will announce fresh easing at it July meeting tomorrow. While opinions are split regarding which form the easing will take, the key focus will be on Draghi’s forward guidance for the remainder of the year. EURUSD trades 1.1141 last, having found support at the 1.1130 level.
GBP Jumps On BoJo Win
GBPUSD has enjoyed a much stronger session so far today with price ripping higher off the 1.2439 support to trade 1.2481 last. It seems that the election of Boris Johnson as the new conservative party leader (and consequently the new UK PM) is fuelling a squeeze higher in cable. Johnson has vowed to deliver Brexit by the current Halloween deadline, even if it means leaving without a deal.
SPX500 Sinks Lower
Risk assets have not fared so well today. SPX500 has skulked back beneath the 3000.19 level as yesterday’s USD gains continue to weigh on risk appetite. US data later today could provide a reversal in fortunes, however, if we see any weakness. With the Fed expected to announce fresh easing next week, equities are likely to stay supported in the near term.
Safe Havens Strong Against USD
Safe havens have had a better day so far with both gold and JPY slightly higher against USD on the session. USDJPY trades 108.05 last, with price a little below even on the session, having slipped against JPY at the European open. XAUUSD has been firmer too with gold trading 1426.45 last as price continues to climb its way back up towards the 1433.48 level.
EIA Report In Focus
Oil prices have been a little stagnant so far today as momentum pauses following yesterday’s rally. The API yesterday reported its largest drawdown of the year in US crude stores. The market is now waiting on the main EIA report due later today, to confirm the move. This would make the sixth consecutive weekly drawdown and should keep crude further supported above the 56.18 level as it continues to recover recent losses.
CAD Holding, AUD Under Pressure
USDCAD pierced above the 1.3145 level briefly before moving back beneath, where it remains hemmed in for now. A recovery in crude prices has helped boost CAD, putting downside pressure on USDCAD. However, price remains buoyant and further upside looks likely. Today’s EIA report will need to confirm the large US crude drawdown to help keep the loonie weighted
AUDUSD has been moving firmly lower since testing the bearish trend line from 2019 highs last week. Price has now broken back below the .7021 level as well as the .70 psychological level, putting the focus on further downside to come in the near term.