For the past four weeks including this week’s trading so far, Crude Oil has been trading within a range of $5, whether in Brent or WTI with no clear direction.
Brent Crude was in the range between $45 and $50, while West Texas Crude managed to trade between $47 and $42, despite the fact that there were many catalysts affecting Oil demand and inventories, in addition to more remarks by OPEC and Non-OPEC members, which increased the uncertainty mode.
Crude Oil Inventories
Earlier this week, the American Petroleum Institute figures showed a notable decline in inventories including Crude Oil and Gasoline.
API said that Crude Oil Inventories slipped by -8.13M barrels, while the estimates were to decline by -2.45M only, while this was the biggest decline in inventories since September of 2016. Moreover, the Gasoline showed a decline of -801K, slightly higher than the -534K estimated.
The EIA data showed that API is more accurate once again. The EIA Crude Oil Inventories declined by -7.56M, despite the fact that the estimated were to decline by -2.3M. This is the biggest decline in inventories since September of 2016.
As for Gasoline, it declined by more than expected, declining by -1.69M, while the estimates were pointing to a decline of -682K only.
Yet, Crude oil is not showing any signs of a solid rally until now.
Confusing Remarks By OPEC & Non-OPEC Members
Over the past two weeks, Russia and some other OPEC and Non-OPEC members gave the market another dose of confusing remarks about their next steps.
Russia noted that they will oppose any suggestion for a deeper output cut whether now or in the future.
Moreover, the UAE also noted that there are no talks or signs of a deeper output cut anytime soon.
Yet, these remarks have changed few days after, Russia said that they might be open for suggestions and many of the producers also noted that they are open for more talks.
This shows that producers have a feeling that Oil needs more actions to stabilize. Otherwise, it would be risky to keep the market floating around the same levels.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Beginning with Brent Crude, looking at the recent rally from this year’s lows, all the way back to $50 as shown on the chart is considered as a normal short-term retracement, which was around 50% from the recent downside cycle.
Even this week’s rally, stalled at the 50% retracement (from last week’s highs to this week’s lows). Lower highs formation is very clear on the medium term, which keeps the bearish outlook unchanged.
In the meantime, $46 should be watched very carefully as a breakthrough that support would accelerate the downside pressure, probably toward this year’s low once again.
Yet, the technical indicators are turning slightly higher, but if lower lows pattern continues, Crude Oil rally is likely to be capped below the trend line resistance which stands at $51.
West Texas Crude
WTI Crude has the same story, it has been trading within a range as noted before. But it also closed lower yesterday, despite the notable decline in US Crude Oil Inventories.
Such move keeps the possibility for another leg lower alive. However, traders need to keep an eye on $44 support area. A break of which would accelerate the downside pressure, possibly toward this year’s low around $42.
On the upside view, any upside retracement is likely to be limited whether below the previous top at 50% Fibo around 47.0 and or the 61.8% at 48.20’s.
