Intraday Analysis – USD faces continued sell-off
The US dollar slips as the market prices out additional rate hikes amid cooling inflation. A fall below the daily support of 0.8900 has invalidated the rebound from late October, putting buyers under renewed pressure. A brief consolidation has failed to lift offers and suggests that the path of least resistance is still down. 0.8800 from a breakout rally back in September is the next level to see whether the bulls will jump in or 0.8700 could be within reach. The support-turned-resistance of 0.8900 would be the first obstacle to clear.
The Australian dollar inched higher after the RBA’s meeting minutes suggested high inflation expectation risks. On the daily chart, the pair continues to claw back losses from last summer’s sell-off. A higher high above 0.6540 indicates strong buying pressure despite grinding a supply zone. The August spike of 0.6610 could be the bears’ last stronghold and its breach may pave the way for an extension towards 0.6800. On the downside, 0.6460 is the immediate support while 0.6360 an important floor to maintain the bullish bias.
The Dax 40 rallies on expectations the ECB may follow the Fed and pivot its monetary policy. The V-shaped recovery has sent the index back to the triple top and the psychological level of 16000. A breakout may clear the path for a rise to the all-time high of 16500 and reinforce the expectation of a bullish continuation in the medium-term. In the near term however, the RSI’s repeatedly overbought may lead buyers to take some profits off the table and 15780 would be the immediate support in case of a retracement.