Weekly Forex Outlook for November 24th
Market volatility picked up last week with the FOMC minutes and comments from key Central Bank officials from across the globe. The markets now head into the final week for the month of November ahead of what will be a few slow weeks to come into the year end.
Fundamentals for the Week 24 – 28 November
| Date | Event | Estimates |
| 24 November | German Ifo business climate | 103 |
| US Flash services PMI | 57.3 | |
| 25 November | BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes | – |
| BoJ Kuroda Speech | – | |
| Kiwi inflation expectations | ||
| German final GDP q/q | 0.1% | |
| Italy retail sales m/m | 0.2% | |
| RBA Lowe speech | – | |
| BoE Carney speech | – | |
| Canada core retail sales m/m | 0.4% | |
| Canada retail sales m/m | 0.6% | |
| US Prelim GDP q/q | 3.3% | |
| US GDP price index q/q | 1.3% | |
| US Housing price index m/m | 0.5% | |
| CB Consumer confidence | 95.9 | |
| 26 November | UK GDP second estimate q/q | 0.7% |
| UK Business investment q/q | 2.3% | |
| US durable goods orders m/m | -0.4% | |
| US core durable goods orders m/m | 0.5% | |
| Core PCE price index m/m | 0.1% | |
| Chicago PMI | 63.1 | |
| Revised UoM consumer sentiment | 90.2 | |
| Revised UoM inflation expectations | 2.6% | |
| US new home sales | 471k | |
| US pending home sales | 0.9% | |
| 27 November | Australia private expenditure q/q | -1.7% |
| Germany prelim CPI m/m | 0% | |
| Spain flash CPI m/m | -0.3% | |
| Germany unemployment change | -1k | |
| OPEC Meeting | ||
| 28 November | Japan core CPI y/y | 2.9% |
| Japan unemployment rate | 3.6% | |
| German retail sales m/m | 1.7% | |
| Eurozone CPI flash estimates y/y | 0.3% | |
| Eurozone core CPI flash estimates y/y | 0.7% | |
| Eurozone unemployment rate | 11.5% | |
| Canada GDP m/m | 0.4% | |
| Italy prelim CPI m/m | -0.3% |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
- US Preliminary GDP expectations are for a softer reading. A bullish print above expectations could potentially push the Greenback higher against weaker currencies such as the Euro and the Yen. The UoM revised data will also be important, especially in terms of the inflation expectations.
- The UK will publish its second estimate of Q3 GDP which is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7% but there could be a possibility of a lower than expected print due to weaker PMI’s. An unchanged GDP is unlikely to bring any bullishness into the GBP pairs.
- Canada retail sales and GDP data is on the tap this week. The CAD found renewed strength last week and an upbeat data this coming week could see the CAD rally against USD and especially the Euro.
- Eurozone CPI data is due this week. While expectations remain unchanged both on headline and core CPI, any possible deviation could see the Euro volatility, considering Draghi’s renewed pledge to stave off deflation.
- Overall, the week is also marked by key central banker speeches, which is expected to keep volatility alive in the Fx markets.
FX Majors Weekly Pivots
| R3 | R2 | R1 | Pivot | S1 | S2 | S3 | |
| EURUSD | 1.2759 | 1.2679 | 1.2534 | 1.2454 | 1.2308 | 1.2228 | 1.2082 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5876 | 1.5806 | 1.5729 | 1.5659 | 1.5583 | 1.5513 | 1.5436 |
| USDCAD | 1.1516 | 1.1443 | 1.1338 | 1.1265 | 1.116 | 1.1086 | 1.0982 |
| USDJPY | 122.868 | 120.924 | 119.345 | 117.4 | 115.822 | 113.878 | 112.299 |
| USDCHF | 0.9939 | 0.9824 | 0.9761 | 0.9646 | 0.9582 | 0.9467 | 0.9404 |