monthly outlook

The month of August was seen to be relatively quiet as far as economic data was concerned. With the summer month coinciding with low volumes, the markets were broadly stable. The lack of economic data pushed the focus on the trade policies by the U.S. The sanctions imposed on Turkey sent the Turkish lira sharply lower. The effect was seen as ...

2018-09-04 John Benjamin Read more

As the US / China trade war rolls on, the effects on both economic sentiment and outlook in China are becoming clearly visible. Indeed, leaders in China are starting to show stronger signs of concern regarding the situation. Over the last few days, the Commerce Ministry alongside the police and other agencies have been asking exporters to inquir...

2018-08-15 James Harte Read more
usa china tradewar

Another week and another new chapter in the trade war saga has been written. Following Trump’s recent implementation of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods and China’s subsequent retaliation of equal measure, the US has now announced plans for another import tariff on a list of Chinese goods totalling $200 billion to be implemented as ...

2018-07-11 James Harte Read more
central bank

The Fed: Gradual Policy Tightening In Full Swing The Fed has reaffirmed its commitment to sticking to its plan of “gradual” policy normalisation with two more hikes forecast this year. The economic outlook is good, with the economy on track to grow by around 4% in Q2 2018, boosted by tax cuts with inflation continuing to creep higher. Employmen...

2018-07-05 James Harte Read more

The month of June stood out with two major central banks taking monetary policy decisions. The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points while the European Central Bank announced a modest taper to 15 billion euro starting from September and eventually ending its QE program by December 2018. The U.S. dollar continued to main...

2018-07-03 John Benjamin Read more

EURUSD Non-Commercials reduced their net long positions in the Euro last week selling 2k contracts to take the total position to 34k contracts. EUR has now been net sold for each consecutive week over the last month as the market has adjusted its view in line with the ECB’s declaration that rates will be on hold until at least summer 2019. ...

2018-07-02 James Harte Read more
bank of canada

While until recently, economists were hawkish on the Bank of Canada and preparing for a rate hike as early as July, the prospects of a rate hike are starting to diminish if recent data is anything to go by. Last week, data from Canada covered the retail sales and inflation reports. An unexpected dip in Canada's retail sales in April and a rat...

2018-06-29 John Benjamin Read more

While recent market focus has been centred around the growing trade wars between the US and China and the US and Europe, there are other key events taking place which require consideration. The leaders of the European Union will meet later this week with the European Council meeting on Thursday and the EU summit on Friday to discuss financial re...

2018-06-27 James Harte Read more
china feeds

China Cuts RRR A Further 0.50% As the trade war between the US and China heats up it seems that neither side is showing any sign of backing away from the conflict. Instead, China has made moves to shore up its economy in order to continue its battle with the US as the PBoC has once again cut the requirement reserve ration by 0.50%. This move ha...

2018-06-26 James Harte Read more
trade war

The global concern for a trade war continues to build as the rhetoric between the US and China has intensified over the last week. Chinese state media has criticised the moves by the White House, labelling the Trump administration “selfish”, “rude” and “mundane”. An editorial in the state owned Global Times said on Sunday “the unpredictabilit...

2018-06-19 James Harte Read more