[{"post_title":"Weekly Metals Wrap","content":"

Gold<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nThe yellow metal saw further consolidation this week<\/a>, remaining within the range of the last two weeks as a lack of catalysts kept trading very muted. Despite a stronger US Dollar over the week, gold prices were able to remain supported, recovering initial losses to end the week higher. Ongoing uncertainty around Brexit negotiations, US \/ China trade talks and fresh concerns over a growth slow down in the US have seen safe haven inflow remaining steady, though favoring the Dollar for now.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradinggold\"]\r\n\r\nWeaker than expected US data keeps Fed rate hike expectations subdued which should keep gold supported in the medium term. Traders now await details on the trade talks taking place in Beijing which should provide the next catalyst for risk flows. If progress is seen to have been made and headlines are positive, risk sentiment should rally, taking gold lower. However, if reports are negative and it looks as though a deal or further talks will not be agreed, we could see risk assets tumbling sharply, pushing gold higher.\r\n\r\n\"forex<\/a>\r\n\r\nHowever, the retracement should find support at the 1298.29 level, or the rising trend line just below, keeping the focus on an eventual run up to retest the 1365.53 2018 highs.\r\n

Silver<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nSilver prices were not so well supported this week, posting their second negative week as softer US equities and a stronger US Dollar weighed on the price. The rally in silver has fizzled out over recent weeks with the market struggling to forge higher ground. An update on US \/ China trade talks should provide the next directional move in silver.\r\n\r\n\"forex<\/a>\r\n\r\nThe rally in silver prices has seen the market trading up to test the bearish trend line from 2016 highs which, for now, is holding as resistance. While price stays above the 15.5700 \u2013 15.1800 region (now acting as support) focus remains on the further upside with bulls looking for a clear break of the trend line. A break back below these levels, however, could see price moving back down towards the 2018 lows once more and potential resumption of the longer term bear trend.\r\n

Copper<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFrustratingly for bulls, copper prices fell back this week, putting an end to the five-week rally that had been in place. The retracement lower came despite the latest data showing record copper imports to China. Chinese copper imports were up 14% in January and 9% year on year. However, it seems that for now, the market is more focused on the outcome of the ongoing US \/ China trade talks.\r\n\r\nTrump has reaffirmed his message that if a result is not delivered by March 1st,<\/sup> he stands ready to increase the current tariffs. Chinese goods worth $200 billion are currently under a 10% tariff which Trump has said can be lifted to 25%. Such a move would place a significant strain on Chinese manufacturers and would be strongly bearish for copper.\r\n\r\n\"forex\r\n\r\nFor now, it seems the recent double bottom in copper is providing the main technical driver, with the price just below the 2.869 neckline of the pattern. A break here should see further bullish momentum develop, signaling a proper breakout. But with plenty of structural resistance overhead, the move could be choppy, and bulls will look to use a retest of 2.869 from above as a base.\r\n

Iron<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nAfter the strong rallies seen over recent weeks<\/a>, in the aftermath of the disaster at a Vale mining site in Brazil and news of subsequent supply disruption, iron ore prices fell back this week. The catalyst for the move seems to be some reluctance on behalf of Chinese steel mills to purchase iron ore at current levels. With steel mills looking to reduce costs, it appears that many are looking to reduce their current inventories before buying seaborne iron, especially as Vale has yet to cancel or delay any of its supply contracts officially.\r\n\r\n\"forex<\/a>\r\n\r\nIron ore prices have slipped back under the 2016 high this week, presenting the risk of a double top formation that could see a move lower in coming weeks. Bulls will be looking to use a retest of the mid $70s broken highs as a support base for a further upside run.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradingmetals\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=75407","createdAt":"2019-02-15 15:08:04","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/gold-5-750x430-150x150.png"},{"post_title":"Orbex Market Flash","content":"

Fresh Growth Fears as US Retail Sales See Biggest Drop Since 2009<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nYesterday was not great for the Fed as the latest US data added to fears of a growth slowdown. December Retail Sales<\/a> fell 1.2% over the month, wildly below both the prior and expected 0.1% readings. Notably, the decline over December was the most significant drop in retail sales since September 2009. Furthermore, non-store retailers noted a 3.9% contraction in sales over the month, the biggest decline since November 2008.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"learn-forex-basics\"]\r\n\r\n\"US\r\n\r\nWhile many might associate the decline to the government shutdown, it didn\u2019t start until late December. Indeed, the data is consistent with the drop in consumer confidence ahead of the turn of the year as trade war concerns, and a sharp stock market rout both took their toll.\r\n\r\nCore retail sales, excluding gasoline, automobiles and building materials, posted a 1.7% contraction over the month<\/a>. This reflects the severity of the decline in consumer spending. The key now will be to see whether December\u2019s data represents a one-off tumble in the indicator or a deepening downward trend.\r\n

Technical Perspective<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"S&P\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nThe rally in the S&P off 2018 lows has now seen price completing a symmetry swing with the last bullish drive into highs previous year before the sell-off. The weekly close will be important to watch. Although this is slightly above the level, an end beneath 2732.19 could signal the start of a turn lower over coming weeks. If we stay above the level; however, the focus remains on a test of next resistance at the 2801.65 level.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"demoaccount\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=75364","createdAt":"2019-02-15 12:00:24","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/shutterstock_633280544-1-300x200.jpg"},{"post_title":"February US Consumer Sentiment and Trade Data","content":"There could be some volatility in currency markets at the end of the trading session with the release of a series of second-tier economic data out of the US, the last significant bits of information for the markets ahead of the extended weekend (a reminder that Monday is a trading holiday in the US). With trade talks ongoing<\/a>, it wouldn't be surprising that investors were a little more keen to stay away from risk positions as trading winds down.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"learn-forex-basics\"]\r\n

Trade data<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nImport and export price data collection stayed unaffected by the US government shutdown since the Bureau of Labor Statistics was funded throughout. Therefore, this data release is in line with the schedule and counts as \"new data.\"\r\n\r\nImport and export prices are an essential factor in determining the terms of trade, which we discussed at length previously; higher import prices can implicate inflation rates, lower import prices can implicate the currency price itself. This data can have a stronger impact on the currency than the trade balance.\r\n\r\nOther trade issues are at stake when parsing this data. The day before yesterday we had the release of the Chinese trade balance. This is especially relevant to the US as part of the ongoing trade war, and it showed some interesting implications.\r\n

How do you define winning in a trade war?<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nDespite analysts' talk of doom and gloom regarding the trade war, Chinese exports have increased over the prior year +9.1% according to the latest data. However, that increase is not going to the US; and the trade balance has narrowed, but still favoring China. More importantly, imports from the US dropped 41.2% from the prior year. Exports, however, declined only 2.4% (a factor of the massive trade surplus).\r\n\r\nOther surprising bits of data in the release relates to the oft-cited example of US soybean exports; allegedly the main impact points out to Chinese tariffs. However, in January China imports showed a drop of 13% compared to the prior year - while certainly an impact, China is still buying a substantial quantity. It's relevant to point out that the data for January and February can signal to distortions due to the Lunar New Year, so longer-term trends need to be observed to get a handle on the real effect of the trade war beyond academic assumptions.\r\n

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nThe MCSI survey done by the University of Michigan, which gives its name, covers the entire country. 100 is dividing line between positive (above) and negative (below) sentiment and outlook. It's the average of the survey respondents view of the current situation and how they expect the future position.\r\n\r\nLast month's MCSI dropped down to 91.2, the lowest since Trump took office - though the survey was taken amid the government shutdown (it was published after the shutdown ended). The index poked above 100 only twice in the last year, but this is mostly due to the forward aspect. The current situation has repeatedly marked above 100, but the forward-looking sentiment has had trouble cracking 90.\r\n\r\nWith the shutdown now over, expectations are for the index to move higher again, but not to the levels previously recorded: 94.5 is the consensus of expectations.\r\n\r\nFor reference, what we might expect from the market, the EURUSD on average moves between 15 and 20 pips within ten minutes of the release; and moves up to 50 pips within four hours of the release. These moves are, naturally, more pronounced in the GBPUSD. These are averages and do not necessarily predict how the market will react for a given news event.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"confidenttotrade\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=75358","createdAt":"2019-02-15 11:21:38","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/shutterstock_562292047-1-300x200.jpg"},{"post_title":"Intraday Technical Analysis 15 February","content":"Trade balance figures from China showed a somewhat better picture compared to the expectations. Data for January showed that exports in dollar-denominated terms rose 9.1% during the month while imports fell 1.5%. This left the trade surplus at $39.1 billion for the month.\r\n\r\nThe data was better than the expectations which showed that both imports and exports would fall.\r\n\r\nThe European trading session showed that Germany's GDP for the fourth quarter remained flat against expectations of a 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the Eurozone's GDP kept unchanged at 0.2% for the same period.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"act_tradeideas\"]\r\n\r\nThe U.S. trading session saw the delayed retail sales report coming out. Data for December showed that retail sales fell 1.2% on the month in December while core retail sales fell 1.8%. The data stoked concerns of the downside risks, and the USD paired gains as a result.\r\n\r\nEarlier today, China\u2019s inflation report released earlier today during the Asian trading session showed that headline inflation grew at a slower pace of just 1.7% on the year in January. Producer prices index advanced just 0.1% on the year, marking a steady decline over the past few months.\r\n

More figures to close off the trading week<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nThe European trading session will start with the release of Italy\u2019s trade balance figures and will be followed up later in the day with the release of the Eurozone\u2019s trade balance figures.\r\n\r\nThe UK\u2019s retail sales report is due, and the data is expected to show a 0.2% increase in retail sales. This following a 0.9% decline in the month before.\r\n\r\nThe NY trading session will see the Empire State Manufacturing Index report coming out. Forecast point to an increase in activity with the index expected to rise 7.6 from 3.9 previously. Import prices data from the United States should fall by 0.2% marking the third month of decline following a 1.0% decline in the month before.\r\n\r\nThe industrial production figures should show a modest pick up with activity rising 0.1%, slightly slower than the 0.3% increase from the month before.\r\n\r\nThe data concludes with the release of the UoM\u2019s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.\r\n

EURUSD Intraday Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"forex<\/a>\r\n\r\nEURUSD (1.1285): <\/strong>The EURUSD currency pair posted a modest recover off the lows<\/a> and supported by the bullish divergence. However, price action continued to ease following the retest of the breakout level. The Stochastics oscillator is singling a bullish divergence near the lows. The resistance at 1.1327 remains a key level for the EURUSD. Price action needs to breakout past this level to confirm the upside bias. Failure to break the resistance could, however, keep the euro currency range bound.\r\n

USDJPY Intraday Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"forex<\/a>\r\n\r\nUSDJPY (110.28):<\/strong> The USDJPY currency pair reversed the gains just a few pips short of the resistance level at 111.21. The declines have been swift with prices recovering more than 50% of the gains made within the range. We expect the USDJPY to remain flat within 111.21 and 109.74 levels in the near term. If the current declines continue, then the USDJPY currency pair could retest the lower support at 109.74 level to the downside.\r\n

XAUUSD Intraday Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"forex<\/a>\r\n\r\nXAUUSD (1312.49): <\/strong>Gold maintained its sideways range near the top end of the rally. Price action remained choppy while the ascending triangle pattern remains intact near the top. The upside breakout could potentially trigger further gains as gold will then need to test the resistance at 1321.25. With the daily chart\u2019s bullish flag still intact, there is a scope that the upside momentum could push prices higher. To the downside, gold prices will need to a breakdown below the minor rising trend line to invalidate the upside bias.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradinggold\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=75025","createdAt":"2019-02-15 09:47:44","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Intraday-Technical-Analysis-150x150.png"}]