[{"post_title":"Orbex Market Flash","content":"The crucial European Summit held this week, intended to agree on a solution to the Irish Border issue and pave the way for a special Brexit summit in November to confirm the details of the UK\u2019s withdrawal agreement, has ended without progress.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"act_tradeideas\"]\r\n

\"Nothing New\"<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n

The head of Belgian parliament told reporters that during UK PM May\u2019s presentation to EU leaders, the British premier offered \u201cnothing new\u201d while Antonio Tajani said that May\u2019s message was one of \u201cgoodwill\u201d but was short on substance. As a consequence, European leaders have reportedly told ordered officials to step up their preparations for a \u201cno-deal\u201d Brexit and the chaotic fall out which could ensue.<\/p>\r\n

However, EU leaders have reportedly left the potential for a further summit in November, open, which will come as welcome news for May who will be glad of the extra time. The UK PM is still under heavy pressure from Brexiteers who feel that she has conceded too much as well as pressure form Remainers who are concerned that the UK will leave the EU without a deal<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Key Issues Still Unresolved<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n

Tajani told reporters that the two sides had discussed the potential for extending the UK\u2019s Brexit transition period from 21 months to 33 months which, EU leaders said they could be open to, though they still have concerns over key issues such as the status of Northern Ireland<\/a>. However, such an outcome would be met badly by Brexiteer politicians in the UK who fear that the UK will remain in a permanent EU limbo still paying into the EU while unable to influence the policy agenda.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Next Move Down To The EU<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n

Despite the lack of progress, the PM\u2019s official spokesperson told reporters that May remains \u201cconfident of a good outcome.\u201d \u00a0However, for now, the market waits to hear whether the EU will convene another summit in November which will be the decision of the EU's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier who has the power to call another meeting if he feels that \u201cdecisive progress\u201d has been made.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Technical Perspective<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nThe German Dax is still under pressure this week. After breaking down through the 11700.6 level last week, price has since retested the level from the underside with the level now holding as resistance. While below here, the focus remains on further downside, with the rising long-term trend line from 2012 lows being the next key technical level to watch.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"confidenttotrade\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=63158","createdAt":"2018-10-19 14:20:03","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/shutterstock_1046529235-1-300x200.jpg"},{"post_title":"Weekly Metals Wrap","content":"

Gold<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nThe correlation between the US Dollar and gold broke down this week with the yellow metal posting its third consecutive weekly gain despite the rally in USD. Much of this dynamic is explained through the continued slide in equity markets this week, fuelling a strong safe haven bid in gold. After rallying initially on the week, US equities slumped mid-week as the US Dollar gained traction again in response to the hawkish US FOMC minutes which confirmed that the majority of FOMC members view further rate hikes as necessary given economic momentum.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradinggold\"]\r\n\r\nThe market is widely expecting a fourth .25% rate hike in December this year<\/a>. The release of the latest economic data continued to support this view with the leading economic index rising 0.5% in September along with solid numbers in both initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook. Despite the gains in USD though, it seems that while equities continue to display weakness, gold will retain a bid.\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nThe rally in gold has taken price back up to retest the underside of the broken December 2017 low of 1235.30 which is holding as resistance for now. Above there and focus will be on a test of the broken rising trend line from 2015 lows. To the downside, the 2018 low of 1158.84 is the first key level with the late 2016 low of 1121.63 below that.\r\n

Silver<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nSilver prices were broadly unchanged on the week, giving up initial strength in response to the renewed slump in equity prices. Silver was hard hit last week<\/a> on the drop in US equities given the metals industrial usage which often sees it trading in tandem with US equities, particularly the industrial average.\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nSilver prices remain sat just above the 13.6704 \u2013 13.9612 level support which has stemmed the decline for now. However, unless price makes it back above the 15.1825 \u2013 15.5734 level, the\u00a0focus will be on the further downside.\r\n

Copper<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nThe red metal came under pressure once again this week given the reversal in risk appetite as equity markets retreated in light of a hawkish Fed. Copper was doubly hit by the continued slump in Chinese markets, with China being the biggest global consumer of copper. The persistent and growing threat of trade wars and fears of a slow down in China have seen investors moving out of Chinese assets, taking its toll on key commodity prices.\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nCopper prices are still fighting it out around the 2.764 level which has oscillated between being support and resistance over recent months. To the downside, we have further support along the local rising trend line from mid-2017 lows and 2018 lows. Below there we have the increasing long-term trend line from 2016 lows. Interestingly, it seems copper is forming a head and shoulders pattern currently which holds the potential for a larger reversal lower over the longer term.\r\n

Iron<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nDespite the moves seen across most of the rest of the metals complex, iron ore was once again stronger over the week. Iron has been supported recently by news of further steel capacity cuts in China. It was reported this week that several key steel mills including Jiangsu Yonggang Group have been ordered to slash production by as much as 50%, boosting steel prices in the face of reduced supply.\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nThe rally in iron ore prices this week has taken price up to its highest level since March this year. Price is now challenging resistance around the $73 mark where we have a few big prior lows sitting as structural resistance. If we see any retracement lower from here, a retest of the $70 - $68 level is likely to act as support.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradingmetals\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=63147","createdAt":"2018-10-19 13:53:34","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/gold-5-750x430-1-150x150.png"},{"post_title":"Intraday Technical Analysis 19 October","content":"

Daily Forex Market Preview, 19\/10\/2018<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n

Economic data on Thursday was relatively quiet. The U.S. dollar attempted to maintain some gains but was flat on the day. Gold prices advanced strongly on Thursday recovering the losses from the day before.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

The UK's retail sales report showed a larger than expected declines. Retail spending fell 0.8% on the month which was more than the forecasts of a 0.4% decline. However, data for the previous month was revised higher to show a 0.4% increase.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

[shortcode-variables slug=\"act_tradeideas\"]<\/span><\/p>\r\n

China released its quarterly GDP report earlier in the day. Data showed that GDP advanced 6.5% in the third quarter of the year. This was slightly below the forecasts of a 6.6% increase and slower than the 6.7% increase seen in the second quarter.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

The economic calendar is somewhat light during the European trading session. However, the NY trading session will see the release of Canada's inflation data and retail sales.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

Headline CPI is forecast to remain flat. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% on the month while core retail sales are expected to rise just 0.1% after rising 0.9% in the month before.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

Data from the U.S. will see the release of the existing home sales report. The BoE Governor Carney is scheduled to speak later during the evening.<\/span><\/p>\r\n\r\n

EURUSD intraday analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n
\r\n\r\nEURUSD (1.1459):<\/strong> The euro continued to extend the declines. Price action was seen trading near the lower support at 1.1435 - 1.1462 level. We expect to see some consolidation taking place at this level. As long as this support holds, the common currency could be seen trading within a range. In the event that the EURUSD breaks below this support, we expect a retest of 1.1400.\r\n

GBPUSD intraday analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nGBPUSD (1.3022):<\/strong> The British pound extended declines sharply yesterday as price action fell to test the lower support at 1.3054 - 1.3028. If the support fails to hold the declines, we anticipate further falls in GBPUSD to push price lower to 1.2808. To the upside, the GBPUSD could be seen attempting to bounce off the current support level. The gains could be limited to 1.3132 level where resistance could be established.\r\n

XAUUSD intraday analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nXAUUSD (1227.54):<\/strong> Gold prices turned higher towards the closing session on Thursday as price action was seen attempting to recover most of the losses from the previous day. Following the rally to 1225.35, gold prices are somewhat trading in a range. To the upside, the next main resistance is seen at 1238.00 - 1242.25 level. We expect the momentum to keep the prices biased to the upside for a retest of this level as resistance which previously served as support.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradinggold\"]\r\n\r\n<\/div>","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=63119","createdAt":"2018-10-19 10:47:18","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Intraday-Technical-Analysis-2-150x150.png"},{"post_title":"U.S. inflation slows in September","content":"Consumer prices in the United States increased less than expected in September on the back of a slower pace of increase in rental costs and falling energy prices. The data indicated that underlying inflation pressures eased slightly during the month of September.\r\n\r\nData from the Labor Department showed that headline consumer prices increased 0.1% on the month in September. The slower pace of increase came on the back of inflation rising 0.2% in the month before. During the twelve months to September, headline inflation was seen rising 2.3%. This marked a sharp decline after the annual inflation rate in August advanced 2.7%.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"act_tradeideas\"]\r\n\r\nThe data missed the median estimates which forecast a 0.2% increase. With the September inflation report coming out slightly below the expectations, it is not expected to impact or change the course of the Fed decision.\r\n\r\nThe Federal Reserve has previously signaled, at its monetary policy meeting in September that it would hike interest rates one more time in December. The Fed also projected four rate hikes for the year ahead.\r\n\r\nDespite the slump, the overall data indicates that inflation pressures will pick up again.\r\n\r\nExcluding the volatile food and energy prices which shift on a month to month basis, the core inflation reading showed a 0.1% increase. This was a second consecutive month of increase in the core inflation rate. The core CPI advanced 0.2% for three months since May.\r\n\r\nOn an annualized basis, core inflation rate was seen rising 2.2% in the twelve months ending September.\r\n

U.S. equity markets frothy<\/strong><\/h2>\r\nFollowing the release of the inflation data, the U.S. Treasury yields extended the declines. The data added to the market turmoil already where investors shunned the risky equities. Investors believe that inflation could potentially overshoot the Fed's 2.0% target.\r\n\r\nThe pickup in inflation is therefore expected to see the Federal Reserve potentially hiking interest rates at a faster pace.\r\n\r\nGlobal equity markets, led by the U.S. posted a decline mid-week. The contagion spread quickly to the Asian and European markets the following day on Thursday last week.\r\n\r\nThe frothy markets come as the U.S. President Donald Trump continued to attack the Federal Reserve<\/a> undermining its independence.\r\n\r\nOn two separate occasions, the U.S. President expressed his concerns about a faster pace of rate hike from the Fed. He called the rate hikes \"ridiculous.\"<\/em><\/strong> The U.S. President, however, denied meeting the Fed Chair.\r\n\r\nTump\u2019s criticism of the Fed comes just a week after the Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave an optimistic outlook<\/a> on the U.S. economy. He said that the U.S. economy was on track to maintain its current pace of growth calling it \u201cremarkable.\u201d<\/em><\/strong>\r\n\r\nThe U.S. economy is fuelled by a strong labor market. The U.S. unemployment rate was seen falling to 3.7% in September. This marked a fresh historical low. Wage growth was also seen rising at a strong pace, indicating that consumer price pressures will start to increase eventually.\r\n\r\nBesides the Fed's policy, Trump has also been attacking the OPEC nations. He continues to urge the oil-producing countries to increase production in a bid to lower oil prices.\r\n\r\nGasoline prices in the United States slumped 0.2% in September after surging 3.0% in August. In the recent OPEC meeting in Algiers, Russia and Saudi Arabia vowed to increase production.\r\n\r\nHowever, officials in Saudi Arabia had previously signaled their preference for oil prices at around $80 a barrel.\r\n\r\nMarkets expect oil prices to surge as Iran is expected to be cut off from the global supply in light of the U.S. sanctions coming into effect from November.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"confidenttotrade\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=62508","createdAt":"2018-10-19 09:04:49","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/shutterstock_457372453-1-300x200.jpg"}]