[{"post_title":"Currency War Fears Grow As Yuan Hits 12mth Low Following Trump Talking Down The Dollar","content":"While the main market focus over recent months has been on trade wars<\/a>, fears have been building this week over potential currency wars following comments by President Trump. Speaking with CNBC, the President commented that he feels the Fed is undermining his efforts to strengthen the US economy by raising interest rates. When asked whether he was comfortable with the Fed\u2019s current tightening the President said \u201cI don\u2019t really \u2013 I am not happy about it\u201d adding \u201cI don\u2019t like all of this work that was putting into the economy and then I see rates going up\u201d. \u00a0Commenting on the new Fed chairman specifically, Trump said that he is a \u201cvery good man\u201d though added that he \u201cwasn\u2019t thrilled\u201d about the prospect of further rate hikes.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"economic-release-knowledge\"]\r\n

PBoC Lets Yuan Slide<\/h2>\r\nFears of a currency war are coming into focus as the PBoC let the Chinese Yuan fall to one year low, drawing criticism from Trump who said the central bank was letting the Yuan fall \u201clike a rock\u201d. \u00a0Commenting on the move, Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group said: \u201cInterpreted as China\u2019s response to the US trade war \u2013 the starting of a currency war- risk off is prevailing with traders selling out of equities sending Asian markets and European futures sharply lower. It was only a month ago when China denied that they would start a currency war following Trump\u2019s action. A lot can change in a month under Trump.\u201d\r\n

Trump's Comments Follow Those Of US Treasury Secretary<\/h2>\r\nThis is not the first time the President has commented on the movement of the Fed or the US Dollar and has come under attack before for tweeting his views on the US Dollar. Trump was quick to talk the US Dollar down following the rally that took place over the course of his election campaign and given the strength of the US Dollar over this year so far, the timing is unsurprising. These comments come after Treasury secretary Mnuchin commented in January about the need for a \u201cweak US Dollar\u201d.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFollowing Mnuchin\u2019s comments in January, The US Dollar fell around 5% over the first few following weeks. \u00a0The US Dollar was similarly shunted lower in response to Trump\u2019s comments though it seems the decline was stemmed as the White House released a statement playing down the President\u2019s comments saying that Trump respected the independence of the Fed.\r\n\r\nHowever, it seems that the US Dollar rally had already run out of steam prior to the President\u2019s comments so there is the potential for a medium-term top to form here. The increase in trade war escalation has favored the US Dollar recently as markets have viewed it as a USD positive. However, in the absence of any further escalation in the trade conflict between the US and China or Europe, it seems likely that the Dollar can see some pullback from here.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"potus-openaccount\"]\r\n

Trump Under Fire Again<\/h2>\r\nTrump has come under immediate attack from critics who are keen to highlight the need for central bank policymakers to be independent of political bias. Trump\u2019s comments are not out of place as the President is already being lambasted for his comments made during a press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin where he said that he believed Putin\u2019s denial of any Russian involvement in the US elections in 2016. Following Trump\u2019s comments, the President then caused further outrage as he tried to backpedal on the comments saying that he had misspoken during the press conference and had meant to say that he saw no reason why Russia wouldn\u2019t be involved.\r\n\r\nIn all, this has been another week of controversy and blunders for the US President. While the market reaction has for now been muted, the medium term effects are yet to be seen. Alongside this, the response of the electorate will be important as we continue to move closer to the November mid-term elections.\r\n

Technical Perspective<\/h2>\r\n\"\"\r\n\r\nFor now, the pause in USD keeps the potential inverse head and shoulders pattern in play. If USD moves lower from here, traders should watch the 91.00 level as a potential right shoulder base which could set up a larger rally higher.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"confidenttotrade\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=56541","createdAt":"2018-07-20 14:09:11","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/shutterstock_1096316975-1-300x200.jpg"},{"post_title":"Intraday Analysis 20th July 2018","content":"

Daily Forex Market Preview, 20\/07\/2018<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\r\nThe U.S. dollar was trading mixed on Thursday. After initially posting strong gains, the greenback eased towards the close of the day. Economic data showed that UK's retail sales fell 0.5% on the month missing estimates of a 0.1% increase. In the U.S., the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 25.7 on the index-beating estimates of 21.6.\r\n\r\nThe economic data for the day ahead will see the release of the German PPI figures. Economists forecast that producer prices rose 0.3% on the month, marking a slower pace of increase compared to 0.5% registered the month before.\r\n\r\nIn the NY trading session, Canada will be releasing its inflation and retail sales figures. Headline inflation rate<\/a> as measured by CPI is expected to advance 0.1% on the month, marking the same pace of increase as the month before. Retail sales are tipped to rise 1.0% on the month following a 1.2% decline the month before. Core retail sales are expected to advance 0.6% after posting a 0.1% decline in the previous month.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"learn-forex-basics\"]\r\n

EURUSD intra-day analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"EUR\/USD\"<\/a>\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nEURUSD (1.1650):<\/strong> The EURUSD currency pair drifted lower on Thursday as price action touched intraday lows of 1.1575. However, the currency pair managed to recover to close slightly higher from the open. The consolidation in the currency pair is expected to continue and the rebound off 1.1600 is expected to keep price action supported to the upside in the near term. The resistance at 1.1686 could be tested in the near term. A break above this level is required in order to ascertain the upside bias in the near term.\r\n

USDJPY intra-day analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"USD\/JPY\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nUSDJPY (112.38):<\/strong> The USDJPY currency pair fell briefly below 112.28 support before recovering back. The rebound of this level failed to see the currency pair make any major gains. Therefore, we expect to see the U.S. dollar extending the declines against the yen. A break down below 112.28 could signal a near-term decline to the lower support at 111.13 - 110.85 regions. In the near-term, the currency pair could be seen maintaining a sideways range within the levels.\r\n

XAUUSD intra-day analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"XAU\/USD\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nXAUUSD (1219.86):<\/strong> Gold prices continued to extend the declines as price action slipped below the 1219 region. The doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart was followed by a bullish close. While price action managed to pull back from the lows, the current gains could see a move to the upside. Gold prices could be seen rallying to 1242 level of support where resistance is likely to be established. To the downside, failure to clear the 1219 region could signal further declines in gold prices which could push the price of the precious metal lower to 1200.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradinggold\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=56514","createdAt":"2018-07-20 10:46:04","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/shutterstock_567192058-1-300x200.jpg"},{"post_title":"Weekly Commodities Wrap: Strong US Dollar Keeps Metals Pressured","content":"

Gold<\/h2>\r\nThe yellow metal cratered to fresh 12 month lows this week as a resurgent US Dollar<\/a> and cascading oil prices combined to shunt the safe haven metal lower. The US Dollar has been rallying firmly this week in response to Fed chairman Powell\u2019s testimony before the Senate where he gave a very encouraging outlook on the US economy. Alongside raising rates at its last meeting, the Fed also upgraded its dot plot forecast<\/a> to two further hikes this year from one previous and Powell\u2019s comments this week reaffirm this view.\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nAfter stalling at the completion of the large ABCD corrective pattern, gold prices have since broken lower, moving beneath the key 1235.95 level. The focus is now on the test of the next key support level at the 1205.29 level which is the May 2017 low.\r\n

Silver<\/h2>\r\nSilver prices were similarly under pressure this week tracking the moves in gold to plumb its own fresh 12-month lows. After a long-stagnant year so far, silver prices have finally been showing momentum over recent weeks after making a false pop to the upside and reversing lower, now on course to post a sixth consecutive losing week.\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nAfter breaking down out of the contracting triangle patterns that have framed price action over the last two years, silver prices have now moved below key technical support at the 15.80 \u2013 15.65 level, an important technical development which portends further downside.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradingmetals\"]\r\n

Copper<\/h2>\r\nThe red metal continued it sharp decline lower this week posting a sixth consecutive losing week as a stronger US Dollar and concerns around the US \/ China trade war<\/a> continued to weigh on demand. Speculators have been piling into copper short positions, at the same time that investors have been unwinding long exposure, anticipating a drop in demand as Chinese manufacturing takes a hit due to the US import tariffs implemented by Trump over recent weeks<\/a>.\r\n\r\nHowever, Citibank this week wrote in a note this week that they are now forecasting a period of much higher prices in copper. The note read \u201cWe look beyond the potential trade war to longer-term copper market fundamentals and we find that current prices of $6,200 a ton are nowhere near high enough to enable the market to clear\u2026 \u201cCopper is set to outperform most other commodities under our coverage over the coming decade on a lack of mine supply growth.\u201d\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nThe sell-off in copper has seen price moving below the 2.762 level which was the mid-2017 high. This level had gone untested since price broke out last year and the breach of this level is an important indicator that further losses are likely. Unless price can move back above this level focus turns to the next key downside level where we have the rising bullish trending from 2016 lows and the late 2016 low around 2.453. This is an area which should see some profit taking \/ technical buying if tested.\r\n

Iron ore<\/h2>\r\nIron ore prices have managed to hold their ground this week despite the losses seen across the broader commodity complex. Support for iron has mainly come from news of a rise in home prices in China over June. The housing sector in China is responsible for a large percentage of iron demand and better prices will be welcomed by bulls, who have been under pressure recently from weaker steel prices.\r\n\r\n\"\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nIron ore prices are managing to cling onto support at the $63 mark which has underpinned price on three major tests over the last three months, as the consolidation at the level continues to develop. To the topside, the $69 level remains the key resistance zone to watch.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"fxcottradenow\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=56466","createdAt":"2018-07-19 16:37:27","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/shutterstock_302111210-1-300x200.jpg"},{"post_title":"Intraday Analysis 19th July 2018","content":"

Daily Forex Market Preview, 19\/07\/2018<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\r\nData from the UK saw the release of the inflation figures. Consumer prices in the UK were seen rising at a slower than expected pace of 2.4%. The median forecasts expected a print of 2.6%. Core inflation was also seen slowing, rising at a pace of 1.9%.\r\n\r\nIn the Eurozone, headline inflation increased by 2.0% as estimated by the preliminary inflation report but core inflation rate was seen rising at a pace of 0.9%, which was slower than the preliminary estimates of 1.0%.\r\nData from the U.S. showed that building permits increased 1.27 million missing estimates of 1.33 million while housing starts also moderated at a pace of 1.17 million.\r\n\r\nEarlier in the day, Australia's jobs report showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 5.4%. The employment change surged, rising 50.9k during the month, beating estimates of 16.7k.\r\n\r\nLooking ahead, the UK's retail sales figures are expected later today. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% on the month. This marks a slowdown following a 1.3% increase the month before.\r\n\r\nIn the U.S. trading session, the Philly Fed Manufacturing index is expected to rise to 21.6. FOMC member Quarles will be speaking later in the afternoon.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"economic-release-knowledge\"]\r\n

EURUSD intra-day analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"EUR\/USD\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nEURUSD (1.1650):<\/strong> The common currency was seen falling to intraday lows of 1.1606 before recovering toward the end of the day. The EURUSD closed on a bearish note and the consolidation near the 1.1606 level continues. The main resistance level is seen at 1.1730 and the currency pair is expected to maintain its range within these levels. A breakout above 1.1730 resistance could signal near-term gains toward 1.1846 - 1.1824 in the short term.\r\n

USDJPY intra-day analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"USD\/JPY\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nUSDJPY (112.71):<\/strong> The USDJPY currency pair was seen easing back following the rally toward the 113.11 handle. Price action on the daily chart closed with a doji which comes near the top end of the rally. A bearish close today could potentially signal a near-term pullback in prices. Support at 112.28 remains the key level of interest in the short term. A breakout below this level could signal further declines to the next main support level seen at 111.13.\r\n

XAUUSD intra-day analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\"XAU\/USD\"<\/a>\r\n\r\nXAUUSD (1224.43):<\/strong> Gold prices were seen extending the losses on the day as price action fell just short of the 1219.74 level of support. Despite pulling back to close the day flat, early trading today suggests a renewed decline in price action. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart indicates a higher low which could signal a near-term rally to the upside. Gold prices are expected to pull back toward 1242.25 level where resistance is likely to keep a lid on the gains.\r\n\r\n[shortcode-variables slug=\"tradinggold\"]","link":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/?p=56443","createdAt":"2018-07-19 11:06:26","image":"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/shutterstock_361707443-1-300x200.jpg"}]