The Week Ahead: New Year’s Resolution
Markets stay upbeat in hopes of real progress in Brexit and trade talks in 2020
Trade of the week
USDCHF Retreats to August Level
The greenback is under renewed pressure as technical selling continues to push the pair towards the lows from last August. This Friday’s manufacturing data could add some intraday volatility while the Fed minutes may offer further insight into the central bank’s guidance for next year. Without a positive catalyst, the dollar is likely to stay depressed and test the support level of 0.9720. A dip below could send the price to 0.9660.
GBPNZD Backed by Transition Extension
The pound sterling bounced back in hopes that the upcoming trade negotiations between the UK and the EU could run well beyond its deadline of December 2020. The European Commission has stated that the Brexit transition period could be extended in order to reach a comprehensive deal. This would mean a hard Brexit might be off the agenda, thus helping the pound recover lost ground. The pair is hovering above the October lows of 1.9340. A firm rebound could lead to a rally to around 1.9800.
AUDUSD Surfs on Trade Optimism
Positive comments from Beijing in regard to the phase I trade agreement boosted market sentiment at the end of the year. As President Trump hinted at a signing ceremony for a deal by as soon as January, the Australian dollar has recovered most of its losses from last summer. The break above 0.6920 has triggered an extended rally with the July high of 0.7070 a key target ahead. On the downside, 0.6900 around the 20-30 moving averages could see more trend-followers getting in in case of a pullback.
Gold Rises Back to October Highs
A rather calm year-end news-wise but not so much for the gold price. Despite the positive mood across global markets, the precious metal has been very resilient, most likely due to technical buying after a 4-month-long consolidation. The rally has reached the major level of 1515 from last October, while the 30-day moving average crossed above the 20-day one. A break above that resistance could resume the long-term uptrend.