USD Rises Again
The US dollar has been moving higher again over the European morning on Tuesday, extending gains seen overnight. The current strengthening comes despite increased expectations that the Fed will cut rates by .25% when it meets later this month, in line with dovish signaling seen in last week’s FOMC meeting minutes. The index trades 96.74 last as price turns back up toward the 97.10 level. Later today we have US retail sales which could prove market moving along with Fed Chairman Powell speaking later in the US session.
Euro Heads Lower
EURUSD has turned sharply lower this morning given the current spate of USD buying. Data has also added to EUR downside pressure today with both German and Eurozone ZEW surveys coming in lower than expected. Expectations that the ECB will also ease in the coming months are keeping EUR pressured with EURUSD trading 1.1238 last, turning back down towards the 1.1217 level.
Pound Down Despite Strong Data
GBPUSD has come under heavy selling pressure today also despite a positive set of earnings and employment data released today. The unemployment rate was seen holding at 40-year lows of 3.8% in the 3 months to May while wage growth rose at its fastest pace since 2008 to hit 3.6% on the ex-bonus figure. However, traders are instead focusing on comments during last night’s conservative leadership party debate which saw both candidates dismissing the Northern Irish Backstop clause of the UK’s exit deal, essentially increasing the likelihood of the UK leaving without a deal. GBPUSD trades 1.2453 last, sitting just above 1.2437.
SPX500 Backs Off Highs
Risk assets have had a subdued start to the day given the resurgence in USD strength. The SPX500 is just down off recent highs, trading 3012.53 last, though remains above the recent 3000.39 level for now. The potential US rate cut due later this month is keeping equities supported at current levels with further upside likely in the near term.
Gold & JPY Both Higher
Safe havens have had a better morning so far, despite the current USD strength, with both gold and JPY rising against USD. XAUUSD trades 1415.72 last, with price remaining around the middle of the recent 1391.61–1433.45 range. USDJPY has fallen back down to test the 107.90 level support which is holding, for now, though looks vulnerable to a break lower.
Oil Traders Waiting on API Report
Oil prices have traded in the green over the session so far today, despite USD strength. While initial gains have been partially retracted, buyers remain active. Looking ahead, traders will be waiting for the weekly API crude inventories report later, ahead of tomorrow’s main EIA report, to see whether crude stores have fallen for a fifth straight week. Crude trades 59.80 last, still just below the 60.32 level.
Commodity Currencies Under Pressure
USDCAD has seen some strengthening today with the pair fighting to get back above the 1.3037 level which was broken last week. A stronger US dollar, as well as some retracement in crude, is keeping CAD down for now though any miss on US data later in the session could fuel a reversal.
AUDUSD has softened today also with price sitting at .7030 last, having retraced from just under the .7048 level. Above here and focus will be on a test of the bearish trend line from 2019 highs which have yet to be broken.