Markets Mixed on Trade & Monetary Policy Narrative

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After a quiet start to the week, the markets were treated to two major themes on Tuesday.

Equities posted some gains after reports that President Trump will be meeting with Chinese Premier Xi on the sidelines of the G-20 summit. There is no official schedule for the meeting as of yet. Still, this gives hope to the possibility of the US and China agreeing to a trade deal.

Meanwhile, after the RBA minutes showed further rate cuts in store, it was the turn of ECB President Mario Draghi. Speaking an ECB event in Sintra, Draghi announced the possibility to cut rates even further.

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Investors will be looking to the FOMC meeting which concludes today with economic projections, a dot plot plan and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Euro Drops as Draghi Turns Dovish

The euro fell sharply on Tuesday. ECB President Draghi announced fresh stimulus and a possible rate cut, as early as July. Draghi said that some of the measures that the ECB could take include extending the time frame for the next rate hike and even cutting the ECB rates. The comments came during Draghi’s speech at the ECB conference in Sintra, Portugal.

Will the EURUSD Drop Further?

After the failure to hold on to the support at 1.1200, the single currency broke past this level, falling to a two-week low. Price action could remain somewhat volatile ahead of today’s Fed meeting. With the markets already discounting a dovish Fed, the element of surprise could dictate the flows into the USD. EURUSD’s next main support is seen at 1.1150 to the downside.

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Oil Rebounds on Oil Minister’s Comments

Crude oil prices got a reprieve as the commodity logged gains on Tuesday. WTI crude oil prices rose over 4.0% on the day on Tuesday.  In an interview, an oil minister from Equatorial Guinea said that OPEC members prefer prices to be around $60 – $70. The comments come ahead of the semi-annual OPEC meeting which could be scheduled in July. The prevailing narrative is that OPEC will continue with its production cuts.

Can WTI Crude Oil Maintain the Gains?

After oil prices surged to the upside, the breached trend line suggests there is further scope for gains. However, price action will need to close convincingly above 54.42 to confirm this bias. The next main target to the upside is at 57.50 where resistance is most likely to form. To the downside, failure to breakout above 54.42 could lead to oil prices drifting sideways, supported above the 51.70 floor.

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Gold Jumps on Draghi Comments, FOMC in Focus

Gold prices recovered from Monday’s losses as price got a boost after Mario Draghi’s comments. The precious metal also maintained gains ahead of the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. While no rate cuts are expected, we do expect the Fed to convey to the markets the timing of its potential rate cut. Gold prices maintained strong gains, rising for three consecutive weeks so far.

XAUUSD Forms the Ascending Wedge Pattern

Gold prices have consolidated firmly above the 1320 handle. But in the process, price action has formed an ascending wedge pattern. This could potentially see price settling back to the 1320 level to establish support more firmly. The bias shifts only if gold prices can breakout convincingly above 1354 level.
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