AUD Collapse Continues As Trade War Woes Outweigh Elections Relief

Orbex Market Flash

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USD Having a Quiet Start

The US dollar has had a relatively subdued session over the European morning on Tuesday. Markets await the first key drivers of the week. Looking ahead to the US session today we have very little on the data sheet aside from a few Fed members who will be speaking. For now, the index trades higher within the 97.68–98.06 range. We are likely to see meaningful breaks made today.

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Euro Under Pressure

EURUSD continues lower today. This is despite Trump’s announcement on Friday that EU auto tariffs will be delayed for six months. EUR remains pressured as concerns regarding the health of the eurozone remain the key driver. However, in its latest outlook released today, the OECD upgraded its eurozone growth forecasts for the year ahead despite warning that the US/China trade war will weigh on world growth again. EURUSD remains capped by the 1.1153 resistance level so far today.

Pound Pummelled Again

GBPUSD remains firmly pressured today extending recent losses to an 8th straight day as Brexit uncertainty and political disruption in the UK continue to weigh on sentiment. The market is very skeptical of May’s chances of delivering a Brexit deal. They are worried about the prospect of a no deal scenario materializing later in the year. GBPUSD trades 1.2690 last, testing the bearish channel low running from March highs.

Risk Sentiment Stable

Risk sentiment has been a little firmer today with SPX500 recovering off session lows to trade back up and test the 2856.30 resistance level. The main driver of risk flows continue to be the ongoing trade warn and simultaneous negotiations between the US and China. While above the 2816.15 level, focus remains on further upside.

Crude Remains Bid

Oil prices have had a subdued session so far today also though are trading higher on the day. Tensions in the Middle East have kept oil prices underpinned over recent days, despite last week’s bearish report from the EIA. Looking ahead today, the market will be watching the API inventories report for an early indication on stock levels ahead of the main EIA report tomorrow. Crude trades 63.42 last, remaining near the upper end of the 61.89–64.38 range.

Commodities Mixed

USDCAD has traded a little lower so far today. Firmer oil prices and a subdued US dollar have kept the pair weighed down. USDCAD is currently sitting on the trend line from April lows, trading 1.3426 last. While above the 1.3413 level, focus remains on further upside.

AUDUSD has been sharply lower again today. The pair had rebounded in early trading yesterday on news of Scott Morrison’s party retaining government, which is seen as growth positive. However, the key driver of AUD price action atm continues to be the ongoing trade war between the US and China. As China’s largest trading partner, the currency of Australia is highly sensitive to economic movements in China. Given the potential for severe economic damage from the new US tariffs, AUD is trading heavily. Price remains firmly below the .6982 currently with last week’s .6864 low looking vulnerable to a break this week.

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