Orbex Market Flash

German Unemployment & Inflation Hit Record Levels Amidst Political Turmoil

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Unemployment at Lowest Levels Since 1980

While much of the focus on Germany recently has been on the turbulent political environment, macro data has been continuing to highlight strength. The latest employment figures showed the headline unemployment rate dropping to a fresh low over the last month hitting 4.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the first time it has fallen below 5% since 1980. Despite ongoing global trade tensions, slowing economic growth in the eurozone and political troubles (both domestically and with Brexit), it seems the German machine is roaring on defiantly.

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Inflation Hits 10 Year High

Inflation has also been moving steadily higher with CPI rising to a ten year high. The first estimate for October shows headline inflation at 2.5% year on year, increasing from 2.3% previously, while HICP inflation printed 2.4% year over year, moving up from 2.2% previously.

Headline inflation has been rising consistently since the start of the year and certainly above the levels at which the ECB defines price stability. However, it seems that the rise in headline inflation has been driven predominantly by higher oil prices as there is still little indication of an increase in underlying inflation.

Technical Perspective

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The global equity route of the last few weeks has seen the DAX falling below the key 11700.6 level support (neckline of the large head and shoulders pattern) and as yet, unable to get back above the level. To the downside, the next key support comes in along the rising long-term trend line from 2012 lows.

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