Elliott Wave Analysis & Performance
Elliott Wave as a technical analysis method has been proven to be quite effective during the 3rd quarter of 2018, and Orbex traders were constantly updated on the market’s turns or probabilities.
Further below, a quick recap will be displayed, presenting in bullet-points the previously posted articles, but most importantly the effect of the technical analysis within.
August 9, 2018 – “Trends And Reversals – Patterns And Correlations”
- VIX first attempt to commence a spike of volatility.
- DXY bullish rally, followed by a bearish sequence.
- XAU/USD & XAG/USD sharp decline with a sustained impulse.
- WTI start of a bullish sequence.
- EUR/USD & GBP/USD ending a bearish structure with a decline, then rapidly rising towards a bullish corrective sequence.
- USD/JPY is preparing a bullish structure, in an impulsive manner.
- USD/CHF is ending a corrective pattern, then unfolding a big down-trend as the next impulse.
- AUD/USD impressive bearish impulse start.
- EUR/GBP last rise and top reached, followed by a considerable decline.
- USD/CAD bearish break-out and a possible bearish sequence.
- GER30 break-out and the start of an important bearish sequence.
- US Indices (US30, SPX500, NAS100) completing the bullish sequences, then entering a bearish territory.
August 20, 2018 – “Reversals Vs. Volatility – Forex – Indices – Metals”
- DXY topping-out and the start of a bearish sequence.
- XAU/USD & XAG/USD bottoms, with a bullish reaction as the expected outcome.
- EUR/USD & GBP/USD completing the powerful bearish sequences but bouncing off the expected supports with sustained bullish impulses.
- USD/JPY is gaining support from a significant level and commencing a bullish rally.
- AUD/USD & NZD/USD starting bullish sequences.
- USD/CAD break-out scenario and bearish sequence wave count.
- EUR/GBP bearish sequence scenario and significant impulse.
- VIX is commencing a spike in volatility, with a continuation in focus.
- GER30 break-out and bearish territory entrance as the sequence.
- US Indices (US30, SPX500, NAS100) effects of the VIX rise and expectations for further possible bearish sequences.
September 26, 2018 – “New Horizons & Opportunities – Volatility Spike & Trade Ideas” – article
- VIX rise and period of uncertainty as a possibility.
- DXY rally and pattern completion as a scenario.
- EUR/USD & GBP/USD sharp declines and patterns completion scenarios.
- USD/JPY is approaching a vibration zone, with reactions as an expectation.
- XAU/USD & XAG/USD probably commencing bearish pull-backs in an attempt to retest significant support levels.
- WTI is entering a vibration area, with a bearish reaction as a corrective scenario.
- VIX wave count and bullish sequence as a probability.
- The GER30 bullish sequence is finalizing and a sustained bearish impulse as the next probable scenario.
- US Indices (US30, SPX500, NAS100) completing more substantial degree corrective patterns, with sudden drops mentioned as the start of a possible more significant degree bearish impulse.
The articles and videos mentioned above, but most of those insights or opinions on Elliott Wave technical analysis were of course reviewed and updated with the live webinars hosted by Orbex and presented by yours truly.
“Mastering Elliott Wave” Revision Webinar contains valuable educational material in which the E-books were explained during the live session, but also multiple impressive views were shared with Orbex traders.
“Non-Farm Payrolls Live Session” release has been analyzed during the live session, before, during, and after the release. A few important swings were explained and shared, along with possible scenarios for the Market’s patterns and cycles moving forward.
Wave Counts & Structures
Following the previously posted articles and videos, the Volatility Index (VIX) indeed started to rise, causing serious damage to the EU and US Indices, which suffered considerable losses.
As a reaction to that wave which shocked the markets, Metals and EUR actually stood their ground surprisingly well, with the Dollar Index (DXY) moving towards lower grounds, possibly entering bearish territory for the short-term. This reaction seems to be inverted with the previous VIX spike in February 2018, when investors focused on the USD as a safe-haven during the “fear” period.
Moving closer towards the patterns and technical analysis, Crude Oil (WTI) also seems to get affected by the sudden volatility, as it did react instantly on the down-side, synchronizing with the US Indices.
The charts and wave counts presented below have been labeled in a manner in which the Market could continue with the above-mentioned reactions, as a probable scenario.
* This article contains delicate information and should not be treated as investment advice or as a solicitation the trade. Risk must be considered.
Forex Majors
DXY – Daily Chart
- Expanded Flat structure in Minute B (red), with the first leg of Minute C (red) towards the down-side, as a possible scenario.
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
- Expanded Flat Structure in Intermediate (B) (red), with another Expanded Flat in Minor Y (turquoise), as favorable possibilities.
GBP/USD – Daily Chart
- Leading Diagonal in Intermediate (A) (orange), followed by a sharp and simple corrective sequence in Intermediate (B) (orange), which could leave Intermediate (C) (orange) as a remaining possibility. Primary X (purple) could complete after a potential bullish rally, in an impulsive manner.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
- Complex Corrective structure in Intermediate (B) (turquoise), with an Expanding or Running Flat structure remaining to be determined by a potential bearish impulse in Minute C (red).
Precious Metals
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
- Flat Pattern in Intermediate (X) (turquoise), with a possible Bullish Extension in Minor C (light blue).
XAG/USD – Daily Chart
- Complex structure (Double Three) in Minors WXY (turquoise), with more up-side possible if an Extension would occur on Minor Y (turquoise).
Energy
WTI – Daily Chart
- Expanded or Running Flat structure in Intermediate (B) (green), with Minute C (red) of Minor Y (red), remaining as a possibility.
Indices
VIX – 2H Chart
- Impulse in Minor 3 (red), with sideways swings towards the up-side remaining as a possibility, after which, VIX could be completing the current rise with another rally.
GER30 – Daily Chart
- Descending Channel in Primary Y (purple), with a possible bullish consolidation as a probability, but with more downside risk as a scenario.
US30 – 4H Chart
- Following the VIX spike and the Ending Diagonal synchronizing, Dow Jones has shown a sustained bearish sell-off, hovering the Ascending Channel lower trend-line. A consolidation could occur at these vibration levels, but most importantly, a breach could pose as more possible weakness ahead.
Many pips ahead!
* This article contains delicate information and should not be treated as investment advice or as a solicitation the trade. Risk must be considered.