US Elections Update: Close Contest But Clinton Claims Second Victory

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Polls Give Clinton Second Win

Although the event was deemed a much closer contest than the first debate, post-debate polls once again give Clinton the win during a fiercely contested and rather personal duel which saw both candidates launching targeted attacks. A CNN/ORC poll conducted shortly after the debate found 57% claiming a Clinton win whilst only 34% gave Trump the victory.

Indeed, according to the latest NBC/WSJ Presidential Elections poll, Clinton now has a double digit lead over her Republican counterpart at 46% to 35% in the four way race.

Trump On The Offensive

Trump clearly had revenge on his mind after the first time around and went on the attack immediately, accusing Clinton of covering up for her husband’s sexual malpractice. Trump also opined that the Democratic candidate should be in jail for her deleting of 33,000 emails amidst an investigation by the State Department

Clinton was keen to fight back and pointed to footage of Trump in which he was heard making derogatory, sexually abusive remarks about women, for which he has been widely attacked in the media.  Trump sought to apologise for the comments saying “I don’t think you understood what was said. This was locker room talk. I’m not proud of it – I’ve apologised to my family, I’ve apologised to the American people”.

Clinton countered by saying “What we all saw and heard on Friday was Donald Trump talking about women. What he thinks about women, what he does to women, and he has said that the video doesn’t represent who is he is. But I think it’s clear to anyone who heard it, is that it represents exactly who he is.”

Battle Of The Sexes

Interestingly, the male/female skew of voters has continued to highlight the disparity in views between the two sexes. Of the woman polled after the debated, just 38% saw Trump as the winner while 50% saw Clinton as having won whilst 43% of men saw Trump as the winner.

USDMXNWeekly

Clinton’s victory was received warmly by markets as risk sentiment welcomed the widening of Democrat candidate Clinton’s lead in the polls. The Mexican Peso continued to recover against the US Dollar which traded to a fresh 5 week low in the wake of the debate. The Peso continues to represent a repricing of risk premia as Trump’s support continues to dwindle in the run-up to the election.

Trump Losing Key Support

Trump is suffering further damage to his campaign now as House of Representatives speaker Paul Ryan, the most senior elected US Republican official, has stated that he will no longer “defend Trump”.  To add further fragmentation to his support Trump also awkwardly disagreed with his running mate regarding Syria saying “I don’t agree (with running mate Mike Pence) … I don’t like Assad at all, but Assad is killing Isis. Russia is killing Isis” – again coming across as unprepared and erratic.

The debate has been criticised for occupying largely uncivil territory with Donald Trump going as far as to appear with four women who alleged to have all been raped by former President Bill Clinton.  During the debate Trump also threatened to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton should he be elected.

Despite the onslaught, Clinton kept her composure and though some polls were mixed, she was largely ranked as having the won the debate.  Markets now await the final debate of the Presidential elections to be held on October 19th with Democrat supported hoping their candidate can make it 3 – 0.

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The US Dollar responded positively to the debate, supported by the view that Clinton election will be good for the stability of the economy and thus create a more conducive environment for a Fed rate hike in December.  Indeed, Fed rate hike expectations have climbed on the back of the debate with CME group’s implied probability for a hike at the December meeting now standing at 64% from 60% previously.

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