Weekly Forex Forecast: 29 June – 3 July

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The US Dollar was positive for the week gaining across the board, led by a better than expected first quarter GDP. With most of the economic data from the US turning out for the positive, monetary policy divergence was back on investors mind driving up the Greenback. The Swiss Franc and the Euro made up the tail end of the table. While the Swiss Franc fell due to comments from SNB Chief, Jordan who spoke about SNB intervention as well as an overvalued Franc.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 26/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 26/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

The Euro turned weaker last week losing -1.65%. The single currency was mostly susceptible to the headline risks from the ongoing Greece debt negotiations. The Euro turned choppy for the most part last week before declining strongly earlier in the week and then trading sideways into Friday’s close.

Fundamentals for the Week 29 June – 3 July

Date Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
29-Jun 02:50 JPY Retail Sales y/y 2.10% 4.90%
JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -0.80% 1.20%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10%
10:00 EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y -0.10% -0.20%
11:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 3.3B 2.9B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.50% 0.40%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 69K 68K
15:30 CAD RMPI m/m 3.80%
CAD IPPI m/m -0.90%
17:00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.30% 3.40%
30-Jun 01:45 NZD Building Consents m/m -1.70%
02:05 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence 2 1
04:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 0.60%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence 15.7
04:30 AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.50% 0.30%
JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.70% 0.70%
08:00 JPY Housing Starts y/y 6.20% 0.40%
09:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.00% 1.70%
09:45 EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.30% 0.10%
10:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer 93.7 93.1
10:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -5K -6K
11:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.50% 12.40%
11:30 GBP Current Account -23.7B -25.3B
GBP Final GDP q/q 0.40% 0.30%
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.50% 0.40%
GBP Revised Business Investment q/q 1.80% 1.70%
11:40 AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
12:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.20% 0.30%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.80% 0.90%
EUR Unemployment Rate 11.10% 11.10%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.30% 0.20%
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 1.83|1.4
15:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.10% -0.20%
16:00 USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.30% 5.00%
16:45 USD Chicago PMI 50.2 46.2
17:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 97.1 95.4
01-Jul 02:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 52.3
02:50 JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 12 12
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 23 19
04:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.2
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.2
04:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m 1.10% -4.40%
04:35 JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 49.9 49.9
04:45 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.6
09:30 AUD Commodity Prices y/y -19.50%
10:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.8
10:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI 50 49.4
10:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 55.2 54.8
10:50 EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 50.5 50.5
10:55 EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.9
11:00 EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.5
11:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52
12:30 GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
14:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -22.50%
15:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 216K 201K
16:45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 53.4 53.4
17:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.2 52.8
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.60% 2.20%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 52.1 49.5
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.9M
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -1.30%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.2M 17.8M
02-Jul 02:50 JPY Monetary Base y/y 36.20% 35.60%
04:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -4.70%
04:30 AUD Trade Balance -2.21B -3.89B
06:45 JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.45|2.7
09:00 GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.60% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -118.0K
2nd-7th GBP Halifax HPI m/m -0.10%
11:30 GBP Construction PMI 56.6 55.9
12:00 EUR PPI m/m 0.10% -0.10%
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 1.28|1.8
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 2.35|1.9
14:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
15:30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 231K 280K
USD Unemployment Rate 5.40% 5.50%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.30%
USD Unemployment Claims 270K 271K
17:00 USD Factory Orders m/m -0.50% -0.40%
17:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 75B
03-Jul 02:30 AUD AIG Services Index 49.6
04:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.50% 0.00%
04:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI 53.8 53.5
10:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI 58 58.4
10:45 EUR Italian Services PMI 52.9 52.5
10:50 EUR French Final Services PMI 54.1 54.1
10:55 EUR German Final Services PMI 54.2 54.2
11:00 EUR Final Services PMI 54.4 54.4
11:30 GBP Services PMI 57.4 56.5
12:00 EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.20% 0.70%


Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

Economic data from Aussie: The Australian dollar has a busy week from Tuesday with speech by RBA Gov. Stevens. Economic data from Australian includes the HIA New home sales, manufacturing and services index and retail sales data.

Canada GDP: The monthly GDP data from Canada is due for release on Tuesday with the median forecasts estimated at 0.1%, after declining -0.2%. The economic calendar is by and large quiet for the most of next week.

Another busy week for the Euro: Consumer Inflation from Spain, Germany and the Eurozone on the whole is due for release early next week. Headline CPI for the Eurozone is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%. The soft headline inflation is likely to put to rest all concerns about a premature end fo the ECB’s QE program. Later in the week, services and manufacturing PMI is also due. The economic data is likely to bring some additional volatility to the Euro cross currencies. But above all, the markets are likely to focus on how the Euro will react after the stunning weekend developments which saw negotiations break down between Greece and its lenders resulting in the Greek premier calling for a referendum on July 5th. (More on this here)

UK GDP: The final revised GDP for the first quarter of this year is due for release on Tuesday. Expectations are for the GDP to modestly rise to 0.4% for the quarter and to 2.5% y/y basis. Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMI are also due later this week with an overall expectation showing a modest increase from previous month.

US Jobs Report: The June jobs report is due for release on Thursday on account of the July 4th holiday. Expectations are bullish with the non-farm employment change expected to show 231k new jobs while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.4% from 5.5% previously. Other economic data ahead of the NFP include the ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending.


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