Weekly Forex Forecast: 29 June – 3 July
The US Dollar was positive for the week gaining across the board, led by a better than expected first quarter GDP. With most of the economic data from the US turning out for the positive, monetary policy divergence was back on investors mind driving up the Greenback. The Swiss Franc and the Euro made up the tail end of the table. While the Swiss Franc fell due to comments from SNB Chief, Jordan who spoke about SNB intervention as well as an overvalued Franc.
The Euro turned weaker last week losing -1.65%. The single currency was mostly susceptible to the headline risks from the ongoing Greece debt negotiations. The Euro turned choppy for the most part last week before declining strongly earlier in the week and then trading sideways into Friday’s close.
Fundamentals for the Week 29 June – 3 July
Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
29-Jun | 02:50 | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | 2.10% | 4.90% |
JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -0.80% | 1.20% | ||
All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
10:00 | EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | -0.10% | -0.20% | |
11:30 | GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 3.3B | 2.9B | |
GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | 0.50% | 0.40% | ||
GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 69K | 68K | ||
15:30 | CAD | RMPI m/m | 3.80% | ||
CAD | IPPI m/m | -0.90% | |||
17:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | 1.30% | 3.40% | |
30-Jun | 01:45 | NZD | Building Consents m/m | -1.70% | |
02:05 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence | 2 | 1 | |
04:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | 0.60% | ||
NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | 15.7 | |||
04:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.50% | 0.30% | |
JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 0.70% | 0.70% | ||
08:00 | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | 6.20% | 0.40% | |
09:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | 0.00% | 1.70% | |
09:45 | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | 0.30% | 0.10% | |
10:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | 93.7 | 93.1 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -5K | -6K | |
11:00 | EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 12.50% | 12.40% | |
11:30 | GBP | Current Account | -23.7B | -25.3B | |
GBP | Final GDP q/q | 0.40% | 0.30% | ||
GBP | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.50% | 0.40% | ||
GBP | Revised Business Investment q/q | 1.80% | 1.70% | ||
11:40 | AUD | RBA Gov Stevens Speaks | |||
12:00 | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.20% | 0.30% | |
EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.80% | 0.90% | ||
EUR | Unemployment Rate | 11.10% | 11.10% | ||
EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.30% | 0.20% | ||
Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | 1.83|1.4 | ||
15:30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.10% | -0.20% | |
16:00 | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 5.30% | 5.00% | |
16:45 | USD | Chicago PMI | 50.2 | 46.2 | |
17:00 | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 97.1 | 95.4 | |
01-Jul | 02:30 | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 52.3 | |
02:50 | JPY | Tankan Manufacturing Index | 12 | 12 | |
JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index | 23 | 19 | ||
04:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.2 | |
CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 53.2 | |||
04:30 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | 1.10% | -4.40% | |
04:35 | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 49.9 | |
04:45 | CNY | HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.6 | |
09:30 | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | -19.50% | ||
10:15 | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 55.6 | 55.8 | |
10:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 50 | 49.4 | |
10:45 | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 55.2 | 54.8 | |
10:50 | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 50.5 | 50.5 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.9 | |
11:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | 52.5 | |
11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 52.6 | 52 | |
12:30 | GBP | BOE Financial Stability Report | |||
14:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | -22.50% | ||
15:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 216K | 201K | |
16:45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 53.4 | 53.4 | |
17:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.2 | 52.8 | |
USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.60% | 2.20% | ||
USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 52.1 | 49.5 | ||
17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -4.9M | ||
Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -1.30% | ||
All Day | USD | Total Vehicle Sales | 17.2M | 17.8M | |
02-Jul | 02:50 | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 36.20% | 35.60% |
04:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | -4.70% | ||
04:30 | AUD | Trade Balance | -2.21B | -3.89B | |
06:45 | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | 0.45|2.7 | ||
09:00 | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | 0.60% | 0.30% | |
10:00 | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | -118.0K | ||
2nd-7th | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | -0.10% | ||
11:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 56.6 | 55.9 | |
12:00 | EUR | PPI m/m | 0.10% | -0.10% | |
Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | 1.28|1.8 | ||
Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | 2.35|1.9 | ||
14:30 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||
15:30 | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 231K | 280K | |
USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.40% | 5.50% | ||
USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.30% | ||
USD | Unemployment Claims | 270K | 271K | ||
17:00 | USD | Factory Orders m/m | -0.50% | -0.40% | |
17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 75B | ||
03-Jul | 02:30 | AUD | AIG Services Index | 49.6 | |
04:30 | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.50% | 0.00% | |
04:45 | CNY | HSBC Services PMI | 53.8 | 53.5 | |
10:15 | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 58 | 58.4 | |
10:45 | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 52.9 | 52.5 | |
10:50 | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.1 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 54.2 | 54.2 | |
11:00 | EUR | Final Services PMI | 54.4 | 54.4 | |
11:30 | GBP | Services PMI | 57.4 | 56.5 | |
12:00 | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.20% | 0.70% |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
Economic data from Aussie: The Australian dollar has a busy week from Tuesday with speech by RBA Gov. Stevens. Economic data from Australian includes the HIA New home sales, manufacturing and services index and retail sales data.
Canada GDP: The monthly GDP data from Canada is due for release on Tuesday with the median forecasts estimated at 0.1%, after declining -0.2%. The economic calendar is by and large quiet for the most of next week.
Another busy week for the Euro: Consumer Inflation from Spain, Germany and the Eurozone on the whole is due for release early next week. Headline CPI for the Eurozone is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%. The soft headline inflation is likely to put to rest all concerns about a premature end fo the ECB’s QE program. Later in the week, services and manufacturing PMI is also due. The economic data is likely to bring some additional volatility to the Euro cross currencies. But above all, the markets are likely to focus on how the Euro will react after the stunning weekend developments which saw negotiations break down between Greece and its lenders resulting in the Greek premier calling for a referendum on July 5th. (More on this here)
UK GDP: The final revised GDP for the first quarter of this year is due for release on Tuesday. Expectations are for the GDP to modestly rise to 0.4% for the quarter and to 2.5% y/y basis. Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMI are also due later this week with an overall expectation showing a modest increase from previous month.
US Jobs Report: The June jobs report is due for release on Thursday on account of the July 4th holiday. Expectations are bullish with the non-farm employment change expected to show 231k new jobs while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.4% from 5.5% previously. Other economic data ahead of the NFP include the ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending.