“We are in technical preparations to alter the size, speed and composition of our measures at the beginning of 2015, should this become necessary.” These were the words of Mario Draghi in an interview with the German newspaper Handelsblatt published on January 2nd. Now if we take a look at the EURUSD price chart we can notice a negative gap, which made it easier for the market to go down to the 1.1876 low. By the 22nd of January, when the ECB will actually meet, we can expect the EUR to depreciate further.
The most important data for today, we may consider the German preliminary CPI expecting to go up 0.1%.. Tomorrow, we have to keep a close look at the services PMI indices published in Spain, Italy and the Euro area. Technically speaking, the EURUSD quotation recovered up to the 1.1975 level, but we have to be attentive at the 1.1876 support zone for the next days.
At the moment, Greece is adding more pressure on the Euro area situation, since it didn’t succeed to elect a president. A new campaign is going to be organized and it may end up with Greece exiting from the 19-member euro region.
The year didn’t start so well for the sterling pound either. On the 2nd of January the manufacturing PMI was published down to 52.5 points and the M4 Money Supply decreased to 0.0%. Today, the construction PMI is expected to be reported down to 59.2 points. It’s clear that the British economy is losing momentum and is feeling the pressure of the European problems. The GBPUSD currency pair broke the lower limit of the lateral movement, signaling the continuation of the descending path. The currency pair is now trading at 1.5280, however we should pay attention to the 1.5178 low.
The oil market seems to continue the descending path as well. The most recent announcement came from Iraq; the second largest producer of oil from the OPEC group, who decided to increase exports this month. The 55.50 dollars per barrel support level is risking to become a resistance, while the 54 level may become the next support zone. As for the WTI oil, the crude oil inventories in the United States are expected to be reported on Wednesday. The price of the WTI oil is now close to the 50 dollars per barrel support level.