With under a week to go for the US Federal Reserve meeting, the Japanese Yen gained strongly over the week as a safe haven bid. For the week, the Yen gained 1.79% emerging as the top performing currency for the week. The Yen was followed up by the Swiss Franc. The Franc gained 1.31% despite last week seeing the SNB holding the LIBOR rate unchanged while SNB Chief Jordan continued in his attempts to talk down the Franc calling the currency being overvalued.
The commodity currencies took a hit last week with the Canadian Dollar losing -2.87% for the week. Weak Oil prices and precious metals prices, in general, saw the Kiwi and the Aussie all weaken across the board. The Australian employment report came out with strong numbers last week with the Australian unemployment rate falling to 5.8%, but it didn’t help to keep the Aussie supported. The NZD was down by a modest -0.51% as the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25bps.
Fundamentals for the Week 14/12 – 17/12
| Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
| 14-Dec | 01:50 | JPY | Tankan Manufacturing Index | 11 | 12 |
| JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index | 23 | 25 | ||
| 06:30 | JPY | Revised Industrial Production m/m | 1.40% | 1.40% | |
| JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity m/m | 0.50% | -0.40% | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | Industrial Production m/m | 0.30% | -0.30% | |
| 15-Dec | 02:30 | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||
| AUD | HPI q/q | 2.10% | 4.70% | ||
| 10:15 | CHF | PPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.20% | |
| 11:30 | GBP | CPI y/y | 0.10% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | -1.00% | 0.20% | ||
| GBP | RPI y/y | 0.90% | 0.70% | ||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 1.20% | 1.10% | ||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 6.40% | 6.10% | ||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 15.2 | 10.4 | |
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | 34.4 | 28.3 | ||
| EUR | Employment Change q/q | 0.20% | 0.30% | ||
| 14:00 | GBP | BOE Quarterly Bulletin | |||
| 15:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales m/m | -1.50% | ||
| USD | CPI m/m | 0.00% | 0.20% | ||
| USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.20% | 0.20% | ||
| USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | -5.7 | -10.7 | ||
| 16:30 | GBP | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.30% | ||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | 3.60% | ||
| 17:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 63 | 62 | |
| 18:00 | CAD | BOC Financial System Review | |||
| 18:45 | CAD | BOC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||
| 23:00 | USD | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 33.6B | ||
| 23:45 | NZD | Current Account | -4.85B | -1.22B | |
| 16-Dec | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | ||
| AUD | MI Leading Index m/m | 0.10% | |||
| 10:00 | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50.6 | |
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 50.7 | 51 | ||
| 10:30 | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | 52.9 | |
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 55.5 | 55.6 | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 52.8 | |
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | ||
| 11:30 | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 2.50% | 3.00% | |
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | 0.9K | 3.3K | ||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 5.30% | 5.30% | ||
| 12:00 | CHF | ZEW Economic Expectations | 0 | ||
| EUR | Final CPI y/y | 0.10% | 0.10% | ||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 0.90% | 0.90% | ||
| EUR | Trade Balance | 22.3B | 20.1B | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Foreign Securities Purchases | 3.35B | ||
| USD | Building Permits | 1.16M | 1.16M | ||
| USD | Housing Starts | 1.14M | 1.06M | ||
| 16:00 | CHF | SNB Quarterly Bulletin | |||
| 16:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 77.30% | 77.50% | |
| USD | Industrial Production m/m | 0.00% | -0.20% | ||
| 16:45 | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | 52.8 | |
| 17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -3.6M | ||
| 21:00 | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | |||
| USD | FOMC Statement | ||||
| USD | Federal Funds Rate | <0.50% | <0.25% | ||
| 21:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference | |||
| 23:45 | NZD | GDP q/q | 0.40% | ||
| 17-Dec | 01:50 | JPY | Trade Balance | -0.21T | -0.20T |
| 02:30 | AUD | RBA Bulletin | |||
| 11:00 | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 109.2 | 109 | |
| EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | ||||
| 11:30 | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | 0.60% | -0.60% | |
| 15:30 | USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 2.1 | 1.9 | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 271K | 282K | ||
| USD | Current Account | -123B | -110B | ||
| 17:00 | USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.20% | 0.60% | |
| 18-Dec | 02:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | 14.6 | |
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | |||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |||
| 11:00 | EUR | Current Account | 29.4B | ||
| 15:30 | CAD | Core CPI m/m | 0.30% | ||
| CAD | CPI m/m | 0.10% | |||
| CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | -0.10% | |||
| 16:45 | USD | Flash Services PMI | 56.1 | ||
| 20:00 | USD | FOMC Member Lacker Speaks |
Time: GMT+2
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: The week ahead is quiet for the Australian dollar as far as Australian economic data is concerned. The RBA’s monetary policy meeting minutes are due for reelase on December 15th which is the only major economic data for the week ahead. Housing Price Index for the quarter is due as well with expectations of a slower pace of increase by 2.1%, down from 4.7% growth seen the previous quarter.
CAD: The week ahead will see the Canadian manufacturing sales data due for release, followed by the Bank of Canada’s financial system review. BoC Governor Poloz is due to speak later that evening. Data during the remainder of the week is quiet with Friday’s consumer price inflation numbers due. Inflation in Canada increased 0.10% last month while core consumer inflation rose to 0.30%. A continued rise in inflation could help keep the Canadian Dollar supported as far as further monetary policy easing is concerned.
EUR: The week ahead is packed with a lot of events from the Eurozone. Starting Tuesday, German ZEW economic sentiment is due with expectations of a rise to 15.2 while the Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment is expected to rise 34.4 from 28.3 previously. The Eurozone unemployment data is also due with expectations of a 0.20% increase in the employment change during the quarter. Flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers are due for the later part of the week followed by the Eurozone final consumer inflation numbers.
GBP: Consumer inflation data in the UK will be the main event to watch for. Expectations are for the UK’s consumer inflation to rise 0.1% annualized while the core CPI is expected to tick higher to 1.2%, up from 1.1% last month. At the most recent BoE meeting, the Central Bank noted that inflation is likely to remain weak into 2016 and a positive surprise on the core inflation is likely to bring back an earlier than expected rate hike expectations. On Wednesday, December 16th the UK unemployment data is due for release. The average earnings index is expected to rise only 2.5% after rising 3.0% for the last two months. The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.3%. Winding up the week, retail sales numbers are due with expectations of 0.6% increase after last month’s -0.6% decline.
JPY: From Japan, the main focus this week will be the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement, which is due to meet just a day after the US Federal Reserve’s meeting. Expectations are currently flat with the BoJ likely to stand pat on policy with no additional easing measures to its current QQE program. The Yen could, however, turn volatile ahead of the US Fed rate hike meeting.
NZD: The week ahead will be important for the Kiwi. Starting off on Tuesday, the Global dairy price index data is due to. On December 16th, the quarterly GDP numbers will be announced, which grew at a pace of 0.4% last quarter. The ANZ business confidence data is also due later on December 18th.
USD: The US heads to an important week with Tuesday marking the CPI data. Expectations are flat with the headline CPI expected to remain flat at 0.0% while rising 0.2% on the core. On December 16th, the US Federal Reserve will be meeting in what could be a historic event where interest rates are expected to rise by 25bps. The weekly unemployment claims are also due later with expectations of 271k increase in the weekly jobless claims.
