Forex Trading Library

Weekly Forex Forecast: November 30 – Dec 4th

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The US Dollar closed the week on the top as the markets head closer to the Fed’s rate hike decision in December. This week’s data was broadly supportive of the US Dollar as the GDP numbers for the third quarter in the US was revised from 1.5% to 2.1%. While inflation numbers failed to beat estimates, the fact that inflation remained steady saw the markets in favor supporting the Greenback. The Japanese Yen was surprisingly the second strongest currency of the week across the board. There were no major economic developments from Japan over the week but the fact that the Bank of Japan opted to stay on the sidelines saw the Yen being well supported.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 30/11/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 30/11/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

Fundamentals for the Week 30/11 – 04/12

Date Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
30-Nov 01:30 AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.00%
01:50 JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.90% -0.10%
JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 1.90% 1.10%
02:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -4.00%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence 10.5
02:30 AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 1.10% -1.90%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.60% 0.80%
07:00 JPY Housing Starts y/y 2.50% 2.60%
09:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.00%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.10% 0.00%
10:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer 100.3 99.8
11:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8B 4.9B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m -0.20% -1.00%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 70K 69K
12:00 EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m -0.20% 0.20%
15:30 CAD Current Account -15.2B -17.4B
16:45 USD Chicago PMI 54.3 56.2
17:00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.60% -2.30%
23:45 NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -2.50% 1.30%
01-Dec 00:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 50.2
01:50 JPY Capital Spending q/y 2.30% 5.60%
02:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m -2.40% 2.20%
AUD Current Account -16.6B -19.0B
03:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.9 49.8
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.1
03:35 JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.8
03:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.3 48.3
CNY Caixin Services PMI 53.1 52
05:30 AUD Cash Rate 2.00% 2.00%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
07:30 AUD Commodity Prices y/y -19.80%
08:45 CHF GDP q/q 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 GBP Bank Stress Test Results
GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
GBP FPC Statement
Tentative CHF Employment Level 4.24M 4.24M
10:15 CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.40% 0.20%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.3
10:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.7
10:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.1
10:50 EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8
10:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -4K -5K
EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.6
11:00 EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.8
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.70% 11.80%
EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 11.90% 12.40%
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
11:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.7 55.5
12:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 10.80% 10.80%
15:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.10% 0.10%
16:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI 48
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -7.90%
16:45 USD Final Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.6
17:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.1
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.50% 0.60%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 40 39
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 18.0M 18.2M
19:45 USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
02-Dec 01:30 AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
01:50 JPY Monetary Base y/y 35.20% 32.50%
02:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 6.90%
02:30 AUD GDP q/q 0.70% 0.20%
03:00 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
10:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 82.3K
Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m
11:30 GBP Construction PMI 58.4 58.8
12:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.20% 0.10%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.10% 1.10%
EUR PPI m/m -0.40% -0.30%
15:10 USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
15:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 182K
15:30 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.20% 1.60%
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.10% 1.40%
17:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% 0.50%
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.0M
19:25 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
22:40 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
03-Dec 00:30 AUD AIG Services Index 48.9
02:30 AUD Trade Balance -2.61B -2.32B
10:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI 56.2 55.9
10:45 EUR Italian Services PMI 53.9 53.4
10:50 EUR French Final Services PMI 51.3 51.3
10:55 EUR German Final Services PMI 55.6 55.6
11:00 EUR Final Services PMI 54.6 54.6
11:30 GBP Services PMI 55.1 54.9
12:00 EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.20% -0.10%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.75|2.4
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.95|2.5
14:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -1.30%
14:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.05% 0.05%
15:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Unemployment Claims 269K 260K
16:45 USD Final Services PMI 56.5 56.5
17:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.1 59.1
USD Factory Orders m/m 1.20% -1.00%
17:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 9B
20:10 USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
04-Dec 02:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.40%
03:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.40% 0.40%
07:00 JPY Consumer Confidence 41.8 41.5
09:00 EUR German Factory Orders m/m 1.30% -1.70%
10:15 CHF CPI m/m 0.00% 0.10%
11:10 EUR Retail PMI 51.3
All Day ALL OPEC Meetings
15:30 CAD Employment Change -0.7K 44.4K
CAD Trade Balance -1.7B -1.7B
CAD Unemployment Rate 7.00% 7.00%
CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.20% -0.60%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.40%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 201K 271K
USD Unemployment Rate 5.00% 5.00%
USD Trade Balance -40.6B -40.8B
17:00 CAD Ivey PMI 55.3 53.1

Time: GMT+2

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

AUD: The Australian dollar will see two main key events lined up this week. First off the RBA’s interest rate decision is due on the 1st of December with market expectations that the RBA will hold steady ahead of the Fed’s decision in a few week’s time. In terms of the RBA’s statement, the tone is likely to remain neutral. Following the RBA’s statement the Australian quarterly GDP data is due on the 2nd of December. Expectations are for the GDP numbers to have increased 0.7%, up from 0.2% GDP growth seen during the previous quarter. With the GDP numbers coming out a day after the RBA’s meeting, chances are that the RBA’s event could remain muted.

NZD: For the Kiwi dollar, the markets this week are likely to remain quiet. The Global dairy price index is the only main event worth noting besides the ANZ business confidence due on 30th November. The GDT price index fell back into negative territory after managing to recover off previous declines. With last two GDT prints coming out in the negatives, a better than previous reading could help boost the Kiwi in the near term.

JPY: The Japanese Yen is likely to remain on the back foot this week with no major economic events worth noting. Retail sales numbers are due on Monday with forecasts pointing to a 0.9% growth on an annualized basis while industrial production is expected to rise 1.9%, from 1.1% seen previously. The average cash earnings data is likely to gain some attention as the BoJ struggles with reaching the 2.0% target inflation rate and has repeatedly expressed the need for the wages to rise in order to stoke inflation.

EUR: The big focus this week will be the ECB’s meeting due on 3rd December. Expectations are high with the ECB due to announce an expansion to its QE program along with the potential to cut the deposit rates. The week is overall busy for the Euro with retail sales and PMI numbers due for release, but all the data is likely to be overshadowed by the ECB’s decision.

GBP: The British Pound will be looking to the monthly PMI numbers, which as of last month saw a strong increase across the board. The Bank of England will be releasing its financial stability report alongside the results of the UK bank stress tests. Compared to the Euro, the British Pound is likely to stay quiet this week as far as economic data is concerned.

CAD: The Canadian dollar will see two big events this week. The Bank of Canada is expected to meet on December 2nd for its monetary policy statement. Expectations are for the BoC to stay put on interest rates at the current 0.5% rate. Following the BoC, Friday, 4th December will see the unemployment numbers being released. After last month’s surprising drop in unemployment from 7.1% to 7.0%, expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

USD: It will be a busy week for the US Dollar with the PMI numbers and other economic data. However, the Dollar is likely to focus on Janet Yellen’s speech on 2nd December, where she is expected to speak twice during the day. The markets will be closely scrutinizing Yellen’s speech for clues on US rate hikes, which is likely to come by at the next Fed meeting. The monthly jobs reports will also weigh on investors with expectations that the US unemployment rate will stay unchanged at 5.0% while the monthly payrolls are expected to rise 201k.

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