Weekly Forex Forecast: November 30 – Dec 4th
The US Dollar closed the week on the top as the markets head closer to the Fed’s rate hike decision in December. This week’s data was broadly supportive of the US Dollar as the GDP numbers for the third quarter in the US was revised from 1.5% to 2.1%. While inflation numbers failed to beat estimates, the fact that inflation remained steady saw the markets in favor supporting the Greenback. The Japanese Yen was surprisingly the second strongest currency of the week across the board. There were no major economic developments from Japan over the week but the fact that the Bank of Japan opted to stay on the sidelines saw the Yen being well supported.
Fundamentals for the Week 30/11 – 04/12
Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
30-Nov | 01:30 | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.00% | |
01:50 | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | 0.90% | -0.10% | |
JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | 1.90% | 1.10% | ||
02:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | -4.00% | ||
NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | 10.5 | |||
02:30 | AUD | Company Operating Profits q/q | 1.10% | -1.90% | |
AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.60% | 0.80% | ||
07:00 | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | 2.50% | 2.60% | |
09:00 | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | 0.30% | 0.00% | |
All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
10:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | 100.3 | 99.8 | |
11:30 | GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 4.8B | 4.9B | |
GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | -0.20% | -1.00% | ||
GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 70K | 69K | ||
12:00 | EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | -0.20% | 0.20% | |
15:30 | CAD | Current Account | -15.2B | -17.4B | |
16:45 | USD | Chicago PMI | 54.3 | 56.2 | |
17:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | 1.60% | -2.30% | |
23:45 | NZD | Overseas Trade Index q/q | -2.50% | 1.30% | |
01-Dec | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 50.2 | |
01:50 | JPY | Capital Spending q/y | 2.30% | 5.60% | |
02:30 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | -2.40% | 2.20% | |
AUD | Current Account | -16.6B | -19.0B | ||
03:00 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 49.8 | |
CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 53.1 | |||
03:35 | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 52.8 | |
03:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 48.3 | 48.3 | |
CNY | Caixin Services PMI | 53.1 | 52 | ||
05:30 | AUD | Cash Rate | 2.00% | 2.00% | |
AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||
07:30 | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | -19.80% | ||
08:45 | CHF | GDP q/q | 0.20% | 0.20% | |
09:00 | GBP | Bank Stress Test Results | |||
GBP | BOE Financial Stability Report | ||||
GBP | FPC Statement | ||||
Tentative | CHF | Employment Level | 4.24M | 4.24M | |
10:15 | CHF | Retail Sales y/y | 0.40% | 0.20% | |
EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.3 | ||
10:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 50.7 | |
10:45 | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 54.3 | 54.1 | |
10:50 | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 50.8 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Unemployment Change | -4K | -5K | |
EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.6 | 52.6 | ||
11:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 52.8 | |
EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 11.70% | 11.80% | ||
EUR | Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate | 11.90% | 12.40% | ||
GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | ||||
11:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 53.7 | 55.5 | |
12:00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate | 10.80% | 10.80% | |
15:30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
16:30 | CAD | RBC Manufacturing PMI | 48 | ||
Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -7.90% | ||
16:45 | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 52.6 | 52.6 | |
17:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50.1 | |
USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.50% | 0.60% | ||
USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 40 | 39 | ||
All Day | USD | Total Vehicle Sales | 18.0M | 18.2M | |
19:45 | USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||
02-Dec | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Gov Stevens Speaks | ||
01:50 | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 35.20% | 32.50% | |
02:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | 6.90% | ||
02:30 | AUD | GDP q/q | 0.70% | 0.20% | |
03:00 | USD | FOMC Member Brainard Speaks | |||
10:00 | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | 82.3K | ||
Tentative | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | |||
11:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 58.4 | 58.8 | |
12:00 | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.20% | 0.10% | |
EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.10% | 1.10% | ||
EUR | PPI m/m | -0.40% | -0.30% | ||
15:10 | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
15:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 191K | 182K | |
15:30 | USD | Fed Chair Yellen Speaks | |||
USD | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 2.20% | 1.60% | ||
USD | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | 1.10% | 1.40% | ||
17:00 | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |||
CAD | Overnight Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||
17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.0M | ||
19:25 | USD | Fed Chair Yellen Speaks | |||
22:40 | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
03-Dec | 00:30 | AUD | AIG Services Index | 48.9 | |
02:30 | AUD | Trade Balance | -2.61B | -2.32B | |
10:15 | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 56.2 | 55.9 | |
10:45 | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 53.9 | 53.4 | |
10:50 | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.3 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 55.6 | 55.6 | |
11:00 | EUR | Final Services PMI | 54.6 | 54.6 | |
11:30 | GBP | Services PMI | 55.1 | 54.9 | |
12:00 | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.20% | -0.10% | |
Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | 1.75|2.4 | ||
Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | 0.95|2.5 | ||
14:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | -1.30% | ||
14:45 | EUR | Minimum Bid Rate | 0.05% | 0.05% | |
15:30 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | |||
USD | Unemployment Claims | 269K | 260K | ||
16:45 | USD | Final Services PMI | 56.5 | 56.5 | |
17:00 | USD | Fed Chair Yellen Testifies | |||
USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 58.1 | 59.1 | ||
USD | Factory Orders m/m | 1.20% | -1.00% | ||
17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 9B | ||
20:10 | USD | FOMC Member Fischer Speaks | |||
04-Dec | 02:30 | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.40% |
03:30 | JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 0.40% | 0.40% | |
07:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence | 41.8 | 41.5 | |
09:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | 1.30% | -1.70% | |
10:15 | CHF | CPI m/m | 0.00% | 0.10% | |
11:10 | EUR | Retail PMI | 51.3 | ||
All Day | ALL | OPEC Meetings | |||
15:30 | CAD | Employment Change | -0.7K | 44.4K | |
CAD | Trade Balance | -1.7B | -1.7B | ||
CAD | Unemployment Rate | 7.00% | 7.00% | ||
CAD | Labor Productivity q/q | 0.20% | -0.60% | ||
USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.40% | ||
USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 201K | 271K | ||
USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.00% | 5.00% | ||
USD | Trade Balance | -40.6B | -40.8B | ||
17:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI | 55.3 | 53.1 |
Time: GMT+2
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
AUD: The Australian dollar will see two main key events lined up this week. First off the RBA’s interest rate decision is due on the 1st of December with market expectations that the RBA will hold steady ahead of the Fed’s decision in a few week’s time. In terms of the RBA’s statement, the tone is likely to remain neutral. Following the RBA’s statement the Australian quarterly GDP data is due on the 2nd of December. Expectations are for the GDP numbers to have increased 0.7%, up from 0.2% GDP growth seen during the previous quarter. With the GDP numbers coming out a day after the RBA’s meeting, chances are that the RBA’s event could remain muted.
NZD: For the Kiwi dollar, the markets this week are likely to remain quiet. The Global dairy price index is the only main event worth noting besides the ANZ business confidence due on 30th November. The GDT price index fell back into negative territory after managing to recover off previous declines. With last two GDT prints coming out in the negatives, a better than previous reading could help boost the Kiwi in the near term.
JPY: The Japanese Yen is likely to remain on the back foot this week with no major economic events worth noting. Retail sales numbers are due on Monday with forecasts pointing to a 0.9% growth on an annualized basis while industrial production is expected to rise 1.9%, from 1.1% seen previously. The average cash earnings data is likely to gain some attention as the BoJ struggles with reaching the 2.0% target inflation rate and has repeatedly expressed the need for the wages to rise in order to stoke inflation.
EUR: The big focus this week will be the ECB’s meeting due on 3rd December. Expectations are high with the ECB due to announce an expansion to its QE program along with the potential to cut the deposit rates. The week is overall busy for the Euro with retail sales and PMI numbers due for release, but all the data is likely to be overshadowed by the ECB’s decision.
GBP: The British Pound will be looking to the monthly PMI numbers, which as of last month saw a strong increase across the board. The Bank of England will be releasing its financial stability report alongside the results of the UK bank stress tests. Compared to the Euro, the British Pound is likely to stay quiet this week as far as economic data is concerned.
CAD: The Canadian dollar will see two big events this week. The Bank of Canada is expected to meet on December 2nd for its monetary policy statement. Expectations are for the BoC to stay put on interest rates at the current 0.5% rate. Following the BoC, Friday, 4th December will see the unemployment numbers being released. After last month’s surprising drop in unemployment from 7.1% to 7.0%, expectations are for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.
USD: It will be a busy week for the US Dollar with the PMI numbers and other economic data. However, the Dollar is likely to focus on Janet Yellen’s speech on 2nd December, where she is expected to speak twice during the day. The markets will be closely scrutinizing Yellen’s speech for clues on US rate hikes, which is likely to come by at the next Fed meeting. The monthly jobs reports will also weigh on investors with expectations that the US unemployment rate will stay unchanged at 5.0% while the monthly payrolls are expected to rise 201k.