The RBA statement shred a positive light on Australia’s economical future, offering a little support to the AUD/USD by announcing a 2.5% inflation forecast in the next two years. On the other hand, the expected growth rate for 2015-16 has been reduced along with the unemployment future figures. Home loans recorded in June went up with only 4.4%, 0.6% lower than expected. The report also announced grim foresights for the aussie, especially if the Fed will raise the monetary policy rates.
BoJ’s governor, Kuroda, reaffirmed its position against the positive evolution of Japan’s economy, although at a moderate pace. The consumer spiral is slowly going upward, taking the Japanese markets along. Friday, USD/JPY had a high of 125.06 (highest in the last two months) before going back to the 124.50 area as a result of the nonfarm payrolls data being incorporated in the trend.
In Great Britain, the UK Office for National Statistics published a report just before the weekend about the trade deficit growth in June, to 9.184 BGBP from May’s 8 BGBP. It would be interesting to watch the pair, as a breakdown at 1.5492 would probably open a door to July’s 27th 1.5490 and then maybe to 1.5467 (critical threshold marked July, 22nd). On the other hand, if the line of 1.5639 from Friday’s high will continue to tick upwards, we can see an evolution to 1.5690 (as of July, 29th) and maybe a reach to July’s 1st of 1.5734.
USA’s labor department released data according to which the US economy created 215K new jobs in July, missing the estimated 225K. Previous month’s release has been revised upwards, the real number of jobs created being above 231K instead of 223K. The seven-year low in unemployment remained unchanged at 5.3% also in July. The hourly gains also picked up, reaching around 2.1% year-to-year growth rate, but under the expected 2.3%; June’s figure remained unchanged at 2.0%. Regarding the labor force participation rate (working-age individuals employed, plus those actively seeking a job) the report stated that it remained still at 62.6%.
Gold is staying positive, trading around the $1,095, but not being able to overcome the $1,100 threshold. The payroll-induced depression has been left behind, the metal being able to overcome the $1,080 area, advancing along the USD tone. The pressure is still on though, mainly because Friday’s results on behalf of the US market haven’t yet echoed in Fed’s press-releases, leaving untouched the idea of a possible lift-off in September.
