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Greece seems to play its last card

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Greece is desperately running from one deadline to another, with no time to find a life-saver and increasingly closer to a grim denouement. Yesterday, Greece managed to overcome a possible situation of default as it paid its debt by using the emergency cash account at the IMF. One above the other, information from sources revealed the IMF’ intention to pull from the table of Greek economy financiers. With capital still fleeing the country and the risk that the ECB may tighten its collateral rules, Greece is dangerously close to a default.

EURUSD doesn’t reflect the Greek crisis. Some would say that from the fundamental perspective, the Euro is overvalued, but in terms of balance of payments or purchasing power parity, the Euro would seem rather undervalued. The current support level is situated at 1.1070 and the resistance level is located at 1.1391. The GDP data due to be released today may encourage further the Euro, but a major danger is lurking when it comes to Greece.

The Sterling pound also has a performance above expectations. After the parliamentary election, the pessimism was shattered by the Industrial Production report (up to 0.5%) and the Manufacturing Production data (up to 0.4%) which helped the GBP reach the year’s top against the dollar and close to 2% from the multiannual peak against the Euro. Today, the BOE Governor Mark Carney speech may leave room for ample volatility, possible in favor of the British pound, but a technical comeback towards the trend line would be possible.

Oil prices are heading towards new local highs. The WTI oil is targeting the 61 dollar resistance while Brent could be heading for 68 and 69 dollar per barrel. Market participants are confident in a new episode of contraction of the US oil stocks.

Both the Australian and the New Zealand dollar appreciate as the Chinese data due to be published today may encourage more stimulus in the world’s second-largest economy. Moody’s downgrades its estimates concerning the Chinese PIB down to 6.8% for 2015 and 6.5% in 2017, fact that extends the country’s agony.

All the same, the New Zealand dollar remains weaker based on prospects on a future interest rate cut and a possible second reduction by the end of the year. Today, the Reserved Bank of New Zealand announced new macro-prudential measures which include the tightened lending limits to slow the overheating housing market.

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