BoE Meeting: 3 GBP Chart Set-ups

Aug 03, 3:26 pm

The Bank of England will be meeting tomorrow on August 4, 2016, where the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25bps, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, a new record low. The BoE maintained interest rate steady at 0.50% since March 2009. The OIS markets are currently pricing in a 100% probability for a rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting.

The question to ask is how the markets will react to the BoE’s policy decisions tomorrow. At the heart of the question is the focus on Quantitative Easing, which currently stands at 375 billion.

Here are the top GBP charts to watch out for ahead of the BoE’s meeting tomorrow.

GBPUSD – Watch the ascending triangle breakout

After falling to lows of 1.2797 following the June’s Brexit referendum, the British pound has managed to stabilize near the lows of 1.28. Price action has been fairly flat following the inside bar that formed during the week of July 4 – 10 with the range set at 1.3481 and 1.2850.

A breakout from this range will likely set the near-term bias in GBPUSD. To the upside, the minimum expected move in GBPUSD is a test to 1.3869 or rounded to the price zone of 1.3850 – 1.3870. This level marks an important price point as it previously served as support, in early February 2016. A retest back to this broken support is therefore quite possible, where resistance can now be established. To the downside, there is a risk for GBPUSD to break its trend line connecting 1.2850 and 1.3057. A breakdown here, and a weekly close below 1.3057 will see GBPUSD slide back to the lows near 1.2850.

GBPUSD (1.3350) - Ascending triangle
GBPUSD (1.3350) – Ascending triangle

GBPUSD remains a ‘sell the rally’ and in this context, the retest to 1.3850 – 1.3870 will serve as a good level to sell the current rally in GBUSD, if there is any. In the short term, a bullish close above 1.34811 could signal a continuation to the upside. Overall, the main view, which is for a correction to 1.3869, could occur within the next two weeks.

GBPCHF – Retest to 1.3472 – 1.33

GBPCHF has also shown similar signs of weakening momentum after prices touched a low of 1.2513. The median line analysis shows that after the initial touch to the lower median line, prices have been falling flat. The bias now points for GBPCHF to retest the upper resistance at 1.3472 – 1.330. Further upside is expected in GBPCHF if the pullback off the resistance will form a higher low. In such an event, GBPCHF could be eyeing for the next resistance seen at 1.41 – 1.3960.

GBPCHF (1.2925): Retest to 1.3472 - 1.33
GBPCHF (1.2925): Retest to 1.3472 – 1.33

GBPJPY – Descending wedge breakout

GBPJPY has been in a steady downtrend, but the price bounces have shown a consolidation pattern, leading to a falling/descending wedge pattern. The price level of importance is 139.00. A weekly bullish close above this level will signal further upside to the initial price level at 152.60 with the potential to extend the gains to the next main resistance at 165.5 – 167.0. The near term bullish view will be invalidated in the event GBPJPY falls below the previous low marked at 130.06. GBPJPY’s run up to 165 – 167 is more likely, especially if this Friday’s NFP report will beat estimates, which will send the JPY weaker.

GBPJPY (135.183): Falling wedge
GBPJPY (135.183): Falling wedge
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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