EURUSD aiming for 1.120 into FOMC meeting tomorrow

Jul 26, 5:15 am
EURUSD

EURUSD (1.10): Following the strong consolidation above 1.105, EURUSD finally gave way as price broke down to test the lows below 1.10. However, the declines look to be limited in nature with the Stochastics on the daily chart pointing to a bullish divergence. We expect a correction towards 1.123 – 1.121 in the near term, provided EURUSD can attempt to breach the immediate resistance at 1.105 – 1.1028 which broke down as support. The major support and resistance levels for EURUSD remain at 1.1373 – 1.132 and 1.1081 – 1.1075. The bias remains to the downside for a test of support that was previously established around late December 2015. In this context, EURUSD is likely to remain bearish with any rallies seen as a retracement of the declines.

EURUSD retracement to 1.123 – 1.121
EURUSD retracement to 1.123 – 1.121

USDJPY (104.34): USDJPY rallied strongly off the lows near 100.42 but prices were capped at the resistance level of 106.19 – 105.70. The current declines we see could be limited in nature as USDJPY approaches 103.15 price level. This price zone of 103.15 – 103.00 previously acted as resistance, therefore a dip back to establish support makes for an ideal view. USDJPY is likely poised to the upside if support at 103.15 – 103 is established. Further upside can be expected if the currently established resistance at 106.19 – 105.70 can be broken. In such an event, expect USDJPY to extend gains to 111 – 111.81 where the next main resistance comes in. To the downside, in the event of a breach of 103.15 – 103, expect the declines to extend down to 101.54. However, a bearish close below 101.54 could potentially upside the bullish view and could see the declines extending down to 100.

USDJPY correcting to 103.15 - 103
USDJPY correcting to 103.15 – 103

GBPUSD (1.311): GBPUSD has been caught in the range of 1.322 – 1.3122. There is a minor inverse head and shoulders pattern that is forming, although not a text book pattern and far from posting any symmetry. Still, the bias remains to the upside, especially after noticing that the current consolidation is shaping out into a bullish pennant pattern. Resistance at 1.3478 will be key in this regard. A breakout above 1.3478 could ideally establish the tone for further upside in GBPUSD. Expect the unfilled gap at 1.3673 to be challenged, followed by a likely move to 1.40.

GBPUSD looks bullish above 1.3478
GBPUSD looks bullish above 1.3478

USDCAD (1.319): USDCAD has finally managed to breakout from the rather large ascending triangle as price cleared 1.3136 – 1.308 resistance. But the current breakout is not quite convincing and we could expect a dip back below the resistance level that could possibly trap the weak long positions near this broken resistance level. However, if the resistance level can hold, USDCAD is likely to embark on a long term correction that could see prices rally towards 1.37 over the next couple of weeks.

USDCAD: Retest of the broken support likely
USDCAD: Retest of the broken support likely

USDCHF (0.9854): USDCHF has been trading within the rising wedge pattern and currently shows signs of a break out from this pattern. Immediate support is seen at 0.9774 while the longer term head and shoulders pattern remains in play, which paints a somewhat bearish view on USDCHF. Further clarity is required for the downside and therefore a close below 0.9774 will be crucial in this aspect.

USDCHF – Rising wedge breakout likely to target 0.9774
USDCHF – Rising wedge breakout likely to target 0.9774
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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