Weekly Forex Wrap Up: 27/11, 2015

Nov 27, 2:28 pm
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AUDUSD (0.71): The Australian dollar is down -0.54% for the day at the time of writing after starting the week on a bullish note. Prices touched a weekly high to 0.7272 but soon gave back the gains on weak Capex spending which fell -9.2% for the quarter. Construction work also was weaker, losing -3.6%. Compared to last week, the Aussie remains well supported but a short term decline is expected ahead of next week’s key fundamentals including the RBA meeting.

  • RBA Governor Stevens speech
  • Construction work done q/q -3.6% vs. -1.8%
  • Private capital expenditure q/q -9.2% vs. -2.8%

EURUSD (1.05): The Euro is down -0.69% for the week and is poised for a fourth week of declines. Prices were flirting near the lows at 1.055 region with rallies that were short lived. Data from the Eurozone this week included flash services and manufacturing PMI numbers which came out broadly stronger but the Euro failed to capitalize on the fundamentals. Germany’s Ifo business climate was modestly higher rising to 109 but import prices fell more than expected by -0.3%. With the ECB’s meeting next week weighing on investors, the Euro is likely to stay subdued as expectations mount on the ECB to announce strong monetary policy measures.

  • French flash manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs. 50.7
  • French flash services PMI 51.3 vs. 52.1
  • German flash manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs. 52.2
  • German flash services PMI 55.6 vs. 54.3
  • Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs. 52.3
  • Eurozone flash services PMI 54.6 vs. 54.2
  • German final GDP q/q 0.3% vs. 0.3%
  • German Ifo business climate 109.0 vs. 108.3
  • Italy retail sales m/m -0.1% vs. 0.5%
  • Eurozone M3 money supply y/y 5.3% vs. 4.9%; private loans y/y 1.2% vs. 1.2%
  • German import prices m/m -0.3% vs. -0.1%
  • French consumer spending m/m -0.7% vs. 0.2%
  • Spain flash CPI y/y -0.3% vs. -0.5%

NZDUSD (0.65): The Kiwi is down -0.59% for the week after prices failed near weekly highs of 0.658 and in the process forming a nearly double top pattern. Support comes in at 0.6514, which if broken could see the NZDUSD decline further. Economic data this week from New Zealand was limited to the trade balance, which came out modestly better at -963 million.

  • Trade balance -963Mn vs. -1bn

USDJPY (122.7): USDJPY is down -0.13% for the week with the markets staying largely choppy. Economic data from Japan over the week saw the BoJ’s meeting minutes where the board remained optimistic of reaching the inflation target without further expansion to its QQE program. Unemployment rate in Japan fell to 3.1% down from 3.4% previously. USDJPY declined off the weekly highs near 123.23 to post a low at 122.37.

  • Flash manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs. 52.1
  • BoJ releases monetary policy meeting minutes
  • SPPI y/y 0.5% vs. 0.6%
  • Household spending y/y -2.4% vs. 0.0%
  • Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.0% vs. -0.1%
  • National Core CPI y/y -0.1% vs. -0.1%
  • Unemployment rate 3.1% vs. 3.4%

USDCAD (1.33): The Canadian dollar is looking to retrace some of the losses since earlier this week. USDCAD is up 0.09% for the week after posting a high near 1.3433. The currency fell below the support at 1.3336 but managed to recover ground. Data from Canada this week included the corporate profits which fell -5.4% for the week while the Producer prices index remained mixed.

  • Corporate profits q/q -5.4% vs. 12.9% previously
  • RMPI m/m 0.4% vs. 0.4%
  • IPPI m/m -0.5% vs. -0.1%

GBPUSD (1.50): The British Pound posted strong declines and is down -0.96% for the week. There was no respite as the Cable attempted to push higher but failed near 1.5121 during the week. UK’s second estimates of the third quarter GDP came out unchanged at 0.5%, while the BoE’s inflation report heard this week saw the MPC keeping rates steady for the foreseeable future. GBPUSD is trading near the weekly lows of 1.503, which marks a potential double bottom on the 4-hour charts.

  • BoE inflation report hearings
  • CBI realized sales 7 vs. 25
  • BBA mortgage approvals 45.4k vs. 45.5k
  • Gfk consumer confidence 1 vs. 2
  • Nationwide HPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.5%
  • Second estimates Q3 GDP q/q 0.5% vs. 0.5%; GDP y/y 2.3% vs. 2.3%
  • Prelim business investment q/q 2.2% vs. 1.5%
  • Index of services 3m/3m 0.7% vs. 0.8%

USDCHF (1.03): USDCHF is strong this week, rallying 1.20% at the time of writing. The currency pair was seen trading near 1.0308. Economic data from Switzerland was void of any major releases but the Swiss Franc weakened on mounting speculating that the Swiss National Bank could be weakening the Franc ahead of the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy decision due next Thursday.

  • UBS consumption indicator 1.60 vs. 1.56 previously

US Dollar Index (99.2): The US Dollar Index is up 0.59% for the week as the currency index attempts to break the 100 psychological barrier. Prices remained choppy for the most part as the US saw a short trading week with markets being closed on Thursday on account of Thanksgiving holiday. US revised quarterly GDP was higher at 2.1% up from 1.5% GDP growth seen previously. Durable goods orders were also broadly higher and the data was overall supported of the Greenback.

  • Flash manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs. 54.0
  • Existing home sales 5.36mn vs. 5.39mn
  • Prelim Q3 GDP q/q 2.1% vs. 2.1%
  • Prelim GDP Price index q/q 1.3% vs. 1.2%
  • S&P/CS Composite – 20 HPI y/y 5.5% vs. 5.2%
  • Richmond manufacturing Index -3 vs. 0
  • CB Consumer confidence 90.4 vs. 99.3
  • Core durable goods orders m/m 0.5% vs. 0.5%
  • Durable goods orders m/m 3.0% vs. 1.6%
  • Weekly unemployment claims 260k vs. 273k
  • Core PCE Price index m/m 0.0% vs. 0.1%
  • Personal spending m/m 0.1% vs. 0.3%
  • Personal income m/m 0.4% vs. 0.4%
  • HPI m/m 0.8% vs. 0.5%
  • Flash services PMI 56.5 vs. 55.2
  • New home sales 495k vs. 500k
  • Revised UoM Consumer sentiment 91.3 vs. 93.2
  • Revised UoM inflation expectations 2.7% vs. 2.5% previously
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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