Forex Afternoon Wrap – 04/11

Nov 04 2015, 1:28 pm
Services PMI's_2102

US ADP Private Payrolls 182k vs. 180k

  • Australia AIG services index 48.9 vs. 52.3 previously
  • Japan Monetary base y/y 32.5% vs. 36.2%
  • UK BRC Shop price index y/y -1.8% vs. -1.9% previously
  • Australia retail sales m/m 0.4% vs. 0.4%
  • Australia trade balance -2.32bn vs. 2.85 bullion
  • China services PMI 52 vs. 51
  • Japan consumer confidence 41.5 vs. 41.1
  • ECB President Draghi speech
  • Spain services PMI 55.9 vs. 55.5
  • Italy services PMI 53.4 vs. 53.7
  • France services PMI 52.7 vs. 52.3
  • German final services PMI 54.5 vs. 55.2
  • Eurozone final services PMI 54.1 vs. 54.2
  • UK services PMI 54.9 vs. 54.6
  • Eurozone PPI m/m -0.3% vs. -0.4%
  • US ADP private payrolls 182k vs. 180k


  • Canada Trade balance
  • US Trade balance
  • US Final services PMI
  • Fed Chair Yellen testifies
  • ISM non manufacturing PMI
  • Crude oil inventories

The Euro posted sharp declines yesterday along with Gold prices which declined by over 1.0% for the day ahead of Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Senate and this Friday’s NFP report. The markets showed little signs of recovering with prices staying flat for most part of today.

The Asian session saw the release of the AIG services index from Australia which fell to 48.9, from 52.3 previously, while retail sales met estimates, rising 0.4% for the month. The Australian dollar was subdued for most of today, with AUDUSD down 0.19% at the time of writing, trading at 0.717 after a brief test to post session highs at 0.721. The Kiwi dollar continued its declines as during the overnight trading session, the quarterly unemployment rate increased to 6.0% as expected while the employment change for the quarter fell -0.4%. NZDUSD is down -0.90% for the day trading at 0.66 as the currency continues to decline for the third day in a row.

The Japanese Yen was weak with USDJPY up 0.15% for the trading at 121.26. Consumer confidence increased to 41.5 from 41.4 previously.

From Europe, the Eurozone services PMI posted a soft reading of 54.1 missing estimates of 54.2, with Germany’s services PMI posting a less than expected print of 54.5. The Euro was weak late yesterday ahead of ECB Draghi’s opening remarks. Although Draghi did not touch upon the monetary policy, he did reiterate the fact that the ECB will take a decision in the December meeting on whether to expand its QE or not.

EURUSD is down -0.43% after the currency closed down yesterday at 1.096. EURUSD is trading at 1.091 at the time of writing.

From the UK, services PMI posted a strong reading, rising to 54.9 above estimates of 54.6. The services PMI marks a strong reading across manufacturing and construction as well which saw the British Pound well supported today ahead of the BoE’s meeting which is due tomorrow followed by the BoE’s inflation report. GBPUSD was however weak at -0.14% for the day trading at 1.539 after briefly posting an intraday high to 1.544.

From the US, the ADP private payroll numbers saw a modest beat on estimates rising 182k above the median estimates of 180k. The markets did not react much to the news ahead of the US trade balance data followed by the all important Janet Yellen testimony to the Senate in a few hours.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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