Weekly Forex Wrap Up: 02/10, 2015

Oct 02, 1:01 pm
Orbex Trading

AUDUSD (0.7): The Aussie dollar is up 0.8% for the week after prices touched the lows of 0.6949 forming a double bottom. Prices are expected to remain poised to the upside in the near term. Data this week from Australia saw the building approvals fall more than expected by -6.9% while retail sales managed to rise 0.4% matching estimates. The AIG manufacturing index was soft at 52.1 from 51.7 previously. The strong declines in the commodity risk currencies seen over the past few weeks is likely to see a bit of a recovery rally take place but the longer term bias remains to the downside.

  • Building approvals m/m -6.9% vs. -1.8%
  • Private sector credit m/m 0.6% vs. 0.5%
  • AIG manufacturing index 52.1 vs. 51.7 previously
  • Commodity prices y/y -21.3% vs. -21.4% previously
  • Retail sales m/m 0.4% vs. 0.4%

EURUSD (1.13):  EURUSD is up nearly 0.79% for the week after the single currency hit lows of 1.11475. Data from Eurozone saw the flash CPI estimates remaining subdued while the producer price index declined more than expected by -0.8% for the month. Slow pickup in inflation is seemingly plaguing most of the Eurozone economies with Germany, Spain and Italy all posting negative prints for the month. The recovery in the Euro mostly came from a soft NFP print as the Greenback weakened leading to a strong Friday rally in EURUSD.

  • German import prices m/m -1.5% vs. -1.4%
  • German preliminary CPI m/m -0.2% vs. -0.1%
  • Spain flash CPI y/y -0.9% vs. -0.6%
  • German retail sales m/m -0.4% vs. 0.2%
  • Eurozone Core CPI flash estimate y/y 0.9% vs. 0.9%
  • Eurozone CPI flash estimate y/y -0.1% vs. 0.0%
  • Italy preliminary CPI m/m -0.3% vs. -0.2%
  • Spain manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs. 53.0
  • Italy manufacturing PMI 52.7 vs. 53.4
  • France manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs. 50.4
  • Germany manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs. 52.6
  • Eurozone PPI m/m -0.8% vs. -0.5%

NZDUSD (0.64): The Kiwi is up 0.50% for the week with prices looking bullish in the near term. NZDUSD posted a higher low this week at 0.629. There were no major economic releases this week with the exception of building consents which fell -4.9% from 20.3% last month. Business confidence was also low at -18.9 while commodity prices managed to rise 5.5% for the month.

  • Building consents m/m -4.9% vs. 20.3% previously
  • ANZ business confidence -18.9 vs. -29.1
  • ANZ commodity prices m/m 5.5% vs. -5.2%

USDJPY (119.1): USDJPY was trading sharply in a range for the past few weeks and latest price action post NFP is showing signs of a downside breakout from the descending triangle. USDJPY is expected find support near 118.4 in the near term. Data from Japan this week was soft with retail sales rising 0.8% annualized less than expected while industrial production fell -0.5% for the month. The only bright datasets were the housing starts which rose 8.8% annualized alongside household spending which increased 2.9% annualized. The Yen is no doubt currently stronger with USDJPY posting losses of -1.0% at the time of writing.

  • Retail sales y/y 0.8% vs. 1.2%
  • Preliminary industrial production m/m -0.5% vs. 1.1%
  • Housing starts y/y 8.8% vs. 7.8%
  • Tankan manufacturing index 12 vs. 13
  • Tankan non-manufacturing index 25 vs. 21
  • Final manufacturing PMI 51.0 vs. 50.9
  • Household spending y/y 2.9% vs. 0.4%
  • Unemployment rate 3.4% vs. 3.3%

USDCAD (1.31): USDCAD has posted sharp losses losing nearly -1.0% for the week after the Greenback attempted a new yearly high above 1.3446 briefly before falling back to trade near 1.318 at the time of writing. The Canadian dollar managed to rally on a stronger Crude oil price this week. Data from Canada included the monthly GDP which rose 0.3%, above expectations but manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.6.

  • RMPI m/m -6.6% vs. -7.3%
  • IPPI m/m -0.3% vs. -0.8%
  • GDP m/m 0.3% vs. 0.2%
  • Manufacturing PMI 48.6 vs. 49.4

GBPUSD (1.52): The Cable finally managed to recover some of the losses from the previous weeks, gaining 0.18% for the week after the currency slipped to a 21-week low testing 1.511 briefly before reversing higher. Data from the UK saw the quarterly GDP coming unchanged at 0.7% while the revised business investment for the quarter rose less than expected at 1.6%. For the month of September, construction and manufacturing PMI’s managed to beat estimates rising 59.9 and 51.5 respectively.

  • CBI realized sales 49 vs. 29
  • Gfk consumer confidence 3 vs. 5
  • Nationwide HPI m/m 0.5% vs. 0.4%
  • Final GDP q/q 0.7% vs. 0.7%
  • Index of services 3m/3m 0.8% vs. 0.8%
  • Revised business investment q/q 1.6% vs. 2.9%
  • Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. 51.3
  • Construction PMI 59.9 vs. 57.5

USDCHF (0.96): USDCHF is down -1.10% for the week led by NFP losses late Friday. Data from Switzerland was weak with retail sales falling -0.3% annualized while the manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown, declining to 49.5 from 51.9. The modest risk off sentiment initially saw the Greenback surge to test the highs of 0.9816 but soon gave up near the weekly highs and declined lower.

  • UBS Consumption indicator 1.63 vs. 1.59 previously
  • KOF Economic barometer 100.4 vs. 101.2
  • Retail sales y/y -0.3% vs. 0.3%
  • Manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs. 51.9

US Dollar Index (95.4): The US Dollar Index was trading largely flat for the week with multiple test of resistance near 96.55 before eventually giving up support below 95.6 on a weaker than expected job growth in the US accordingly to the monthly NFP data released by the BLS. Earlier in the week, the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen in her speech kept her hawkish stand noting that the Fed would hike rates this year. However data released during this week was mixed. Personal income was weak growing 0.3% while pending home sales fell -1.4%. The weekly unemployment claims also increased more than expected to 277k while the ISM manufacturing dipped to a low of 50.2. Topping it all, the monthly jobs data showed the US economy added 142k new jobs, posting one of the slowest months in hiring in nearly a year and a half. The unemployment rate remained unchanged however at 5.1%..

  • Core PCE price index m/m 0.1% vs. 0.1%
  • Personal spending m/m 0.4% vs. 0.3%
  • Personal income m/m 0.3% vs. 0.4%
  • Pending home sales m/m -1.4% vs. 0.4%
  • S&P/CS Composite 20-HPI y/y 5.0% vs. 5.1%
  • CB Consumer confidence 103.0 vs. 96.2
  • ADP nonfarm employment change 200k vs. 192k
  • Chicago PMI 48.7 vs. 53.2
  • Fed Chair Yellen speech
  • Weekly unemployment claims 277k vs. 273k
  • Final manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs. 53.0
  • ISM manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs. 50.8
  • Construction spending m/m 0.7% vs. 0.6%
  • Nonfarm employment change 142k vs. 201k
  • Average hourly earnings m/m 0.0% vs. 0.2%; y/y 2.2% vs. 2.4%
  • Unemployment rate 5.1% vs. 5.1%
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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