Weekly Forex Technical Outlook – 20th October

Oct 20 2015, 10:59 am
trading system

EURUSD (1.138): EURUSD has seen multiple rejections near resistance zone of 1.148 and 1.144 region. Price action currently is shaping into a triangle pattern which indicates a potential breakout in the near term. The bias remains to the downside considering the strong resistance that has held price so far. Support to the downside comes in at 1.112 which is where the break out from the triangle is likely to find support at as well as the confluence of the price channel. Below 1.112 major support at 1.0977 comes in which shows that the downside in EURUSD is well supported. Overall, we can expect to see prices consolidate between 1.148 resistance and 1.112 support in the near term. But as long as prices are above 1.0977, we can expect EURUSD to eventually attempt to breaking above the 1.148 resistance.

EURUSD Daily Chart, 20/10
EURUSD Daily Chart, 20/10

GBPUSD (1.548): GBPUSD has formed a hidden bearish divergence indicating a potential move to the downside also taken in consideration with the lower highs that has been formed in the Cable. Price action has recently broken out of the descending triangle/wedge pattern and the current rally could see a test to 1.5588 before a decline back to 1.5355 takes place, which will mark the retest of the wedge’s break out. The eventual target to the upside comes in for a potential retest to 1.5779 level in the medium to long term time frame. As long as prices are supported above 1.5215, GBPUSD remains poised to the upside for a test to 1.5779, which on a break out could see prices test previous highs of 1.61. To the downside, in the event prices break below 1.5345, the lower support at 1.5215 will be critical, which if gives way could see a potential decline lower invalidating the wedge pattern.

GBPUSD - Falling Wedge
GBPUSD – Falling Wedge

USDJPY (119.6): USDJPY’s recent breakout to the downside saw prices being rejected and forming a bullish reversal doji pattern which was followed through by bullish candlestick closes. However prices are trading close to the break out from the triangle pattern which could mean a potential test to as high as 120.97 in the near term. USDJPY’s bias remains to the downside as long as 120.97 doesn’t give way. A possible test to 116.576 remains to be tested which marks the 127.2% Fib extension to the bear flag pattern.

USDJPY - Retest of triangle break out
USDJPY – Retest of triangle break out

USDCAD (1.30): USDCAD’s decline was halted below 1.2977 support/resistance level and prices reversed off these lows by first forming an inside bar and then breaking out strongly to the upside. We can expect a dip back to 1.2977 level ahead of a further rally towards 1.31 all the way through to 1.32 level of resistance. As long as prices are capped at this resistance level USDCAD could resume its decline lower to an eventual decline to test 1.28 through 1.27 support zone. This would mark a correction to retest the highs of the previous descending price channel and is an important support level that could see the USDCAD resume its uptrend again.

USDDCAD - Daily Chart, 20/10
USDDCAD – Daily Chart, 20/10

USDCHF (0.95): USDCHF has broken out from a bearish flag pattern which indicates a potential decline to the downside, towards 0.94 at the very least. Expect prices to rebound in the short term to retest the broken resistance at 0.955 before further declines lower. In the event USDCHF rallies above 0.955 we can expect a further rally to the previous highs at 0.965. Main support comes in at 0.93 region which marks the lower end of the major price channel as shown on the chart.

USDCHF - H4, Bear Flag
USDCHF – H4, Bear Flag
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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