Weekly Forex Wrap Up: August 21, 2015

Aug 21, 1:31 pm
November 18th

AUDUSD (0.73): The Aussie was weaker among the commodity risk currencies with AUDUSD down -0.53%. Economic data from Australia included the RBA meeting minutes which struck a neutral tone against expectations for the RBA to keep up with its dovish rhetoric. Despite the upbeat tone in the RBA’s minutes and a generally weaker US Dollar, the Aussie failed to capitalize and remained weak.

  • RBA releases monetary policy meeting minutes
  • New motor vehicle sales m/ -1.3% vs. 3.9% previously
  • MI Leading index m/m 0.0% vs. 0.0%

EURUSD (1.12): The Euro was one of the stronger currencies this week despite some significant headwinds. While Greece managed to receive the bailout funds with Germany and other European parliaments approving the bailout, Alexis Tsipras called for a snap election for 20th September. Economic data from Eurozone was mostly limited to flash PMI’s but the weaker Greenback managed to boost the Euro this week. EURUSD was trading 1.5% higher this week.

  • Germany PPI m/m 0.0% vs. -0.1%
  • France flash manufacturing PMI 48.6 vs. 49.8
  • France flash services PMI 51.8 vs. 52.1
  • Germany flash manufacturing PMI 53.2 vs. 51.7
  • Germany flash services PMI 53.6 vs. 53.7
  • Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI52.3 vs. 52.3
  • Eurozone flash services PMI 54.3 vs. 54.1

NZDUSD (0.66): The Kiwi, interestingly enough emerged stronger this week with NDUSD posting gains of over 2% for the week. The gains in the Kiwi come despite the market sentiment off the China data which saw the currency along with the Kiwi weaken considerably due to China currency intervention. On the economic front, the global dairy trade index rebounded gaining 14.8% beating estimates of -9.3%. Producer prices were also better off, falling -0.3% on the input and -0.2% on the output..

  • GDT Price Index 14.8% vs. -9.3%
  • PPI Input q/q -0.3% vs. -0.5%
  • PPI Output q/q -0.2% vs. -0.2%
  • Visitor arrivals m/m -2.7% vs. -0.5% previously
  • Credit card spending y/y 9.7% vs. 6.6% previously

USDJPY (122.5): The Yen was stronger this week along with the safe haven Swiss Franc. USDJPY was down -1.37% for the week as the Greenback was hit by dovish FOMC minutes and falling expectations of a September rate hike. Economic data was limited to the quarterly GDP which fell -0.4%. However, the Yen was bid up as markets feel unease over China’s weakening economic data and more currency intervention which is likely to follow.

  • Preliminary GDP q/q -0.4% vs. -0.5%
  • Preliminary GDP price index y/y 1.6% vs. 2.2%
  • Trade balance -0.37Tn vs. -0.16Tn
  • All Industries activity m/m 0.3% vs. 0.4%
  • Flash manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs. 52.1

USDCAD (1.30): Economic data from Canada was limited to the CPI and retail sales data. While CPI was flat for the month on both the headline and core, retail sales saw a healthy rebound, beating estimates on both the core and headline retail sales. Earlier in the week the wholesale sales also posted strong number, growing 1.3% beating estimates. USDCAD was trading flat for the week, down -0.06% at the time of writing.

  • Wholesale sales m/m 1.3% vs. 1.0%
  • Core CPI m/m 0.0% vs. 0.0%; CPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.1%
  • Retail sales m/m 0.6% vs. 0.2%; Core retail sales m/m 0.8% vs. 0.6%

GBPUSD (1.56): It was a quiet week for the Pound Sterling with only the CPI and retail sales data being the major market events. While CPI showed signs of a rebound, which saw the GBPUSD rally on the news as Core inflation rose 1.2% for the year, retail sales failed to meet expectations, rising only 0.1%. GBPUSD was trading flat and remains stuck trading sideways. PPI data released this week pointed to a weaker producer price index with PPI input down -0.9% and PPI output down -0.1%. While the CPI data might have been something to cheer about, it is unlikely that a one off reading could shift the market sentiment significantly.

  • Rightmove HPI m/m -0.8% vs. 0.1% previously
  • CPI y/y 0.1% vs. 0.0%; Core CPI y/y 1.2% vs. 0.8%
  • PPI Input m/m -0.9% vs. -1.8%
  • PPI Output m/m -0.1% vs. -0.1%
  • HPI y/y 5.7% vs. 5.9%; RPI y/y 1.0% vs. 1.0%
  • Retail sales m/m 0.1% vs. 0.4%

USDCHF (0.95): The Swiss Franc was one of the strongest currencies this week as global uncertainty surrounding China and the dovish FOMC minutes saw the safe haven gain strongly. USDCHF was down -2.24% for the week at the time of writing. There were no major economic releases from Switzerland this week with the exception of retail sales which declined more than expected to -0.9%. But the Swiss Franc was muted to the data as global sentiment far outweighed the economic data.

  • Retail sales y/y -0.9% vs. -0.6%
  • Trade balance 3.74Bn vs. 2.59Bn

US Dollar Index (95.4): It was a rough week for the US Dollar as the much awaited FOMC meeting minutes showed a rather dovish view with members doubtful on whether inflation would reach the Fed’s 2% target. Furthermore, after the China currency devaluation, the US Dollar which initially surged, fell back to give up all its gains this week. Economic data this week included the weekly unemployment claims which edged higher but remained above trend, consistent with a strong labour market. The Philly Fed manufacturing index was also up 8.3 beating expectations of 6.9. However the weak China PMI released earlier on Friday led to a risk-off sentiment with the Euro, Kiwi, the Yen and the Swiss Franc gaining ground.

  • Empire State manufacturing index -14.9 vs. 5
  • Building permits 1.12Mn vs. 1.23Mn
  • Housing starts 1.21Mn vs. 1.19Mn
  • CPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.2%; Core CPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.2%
  • FOMC meeting minutes released
  • Weekly unemployment claims 277k vs. 272k
  • Existing home sales 5.59Mn vs. 5.45Mn
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index 8.3 vs. 6.9
  • CB Leading index m/m -0.2% vs. 0.2%
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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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