Weekly Forex Forecast: 29 June – 3 July

Jun 29, 4:17 am
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 26/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

The US Dollar was positive for the week gaining across the board, led by a better than expected first quarter GDP. With most of the economic data from the US turning out for the positive, monetary policy divergence was back on investors mind driving up the Greenback. The Swiss Franc and the Euro made up the tail end of the table. While the Swiss Franc fell due to comments from SNB Chief, Jordan who spoke about SNB intervention as well as an overvalued Franc.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 26/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 26/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

The Euro turned weaker last week losing -1.65%. The single currency was mostly susceptible to the headline risks from the ongoing Greece debt negotiations. The Euro turned choppy for the most part last week before declining strongly earlier in the week and then trading sideways into Friday’s close.

Fundamentals for the Week 29 June – 3 July

29-Jun02:50JPYRetail Sales y/y2.10%4.90%
JPYPrelim Industrial Production m/m-0.80%1.20%
All DayEURGerman Prelim CPI m/m0.10%0.10%
10:00EURSpanish Flash CPI y/y-0.10%-0.20%
11:30GBPNet Lending to Individuals m/m3.3B2.9B
GBPM4 Money Supply m/m0.50%0.40%
GBPMortgage Approvals69K68K
15:30CADRMPI m/m3.80%
CADIPPI m/m-0.90%
17:00USDPending Home Sales m/m1.30%3.40%
30-Jun01:45NZDBuilding Consents m/m-1.70%
02:05GBPGfK Consumer Confidence21
04:00AUDHIA New Home Sales m/m0.60%
NZDANZ Business Confidence15.7
04:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit m/m0.50%0.30%
JPYAverage Cash Earnings y/y0.70%0.70%
08:00JPYHousing Starts y/y6.20%0.40%
09:00EURGerman Retail Sales m/m0.00%1.70%
09:45EURFrench Consumer Spending m/m0.30%0.10%
10:00CHFKOF Economic Barometer93.793.1
10:55EURGerman Unemployment Change-5K-6K
11:00EURItalian Monthly Unemployment Rate12.50%12.40%
11:30GBPCurrent Account-23.7B-25.3B
GBPFinal GDP q/q0.40%0.30%
GBPIndex of Services 3m/3m0.50%0.40%
GBPRevised Business Investment q/q1.80%1.70%
11:40AUDRBA Gov Stevens Speaks
12:00EURCPI Flash Estimate y/y0.20%0.30%
EURCore CPI Flash Estimate y/y0.80%0.90%
EURUnemployment Rate11.10%11.10%
EURItalian Prelim CPI m/m0.30%0.20%
TentativeEURItalian 10-y Bond Auction1.83|1.4
15:30CADGDP m/m0.10%-0.20%
16:00USDS&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y5.30%5.00%
16:45USDChicago PMI50.246.2
17:00USDCB Consumer Confidence97.195.4
01-Jul02:30AUDAIG Manufacturing Index52.3
02:50JPYTankan Manufacturing Index1212
JPYTankan Non-Manufacturing Index2319
04:00CNYManufacturing PMI50.350.2
CNYNon-Manufacturing PMI53.2
04:30AUDBuilding Approvals m/m1.10%-4.40%
04:35JPYFinal Manufacturing PMI49.949.9
04:45CNYHSBC Final Manufacturing PMI49.649.6
09:30AUDCommodity Prices y/y-19.50%
10:15EURSpanish Manufacturing PMI55.655.8
10:30CHFManufacturing PMI5049.4
10:45EURItalian Manufacturing PMI55.254.8
10:50EURFrench Final Manufacturing PMI50.550.5
10:55EURGerman Final Manufacturing PMI51.951.9
11:00EURFinal Manufacturing PMI52.552.5
11:30GBPManufacturing PMI52.652
12:30GBPBOE Financial Stability Report
14:30USDChallenger Job Cuts y/y-22.50%
15:15USDADP Non-Farm Employment Change216K201K
16:45USDFinal Manufacturing PMI53.453.4
17:00USDISM Manufacturing PMI53.252.8
USDConstruction Spending m/m0.60%2.20%
USDISM Manufacturing Prices52.149.5
17:30USDCrude Oil Inventories-4.9M
TentativeNZDGDT Price Index-1.30%
All DayUSDTotal Vehicle Sales17.2M17.8M
02-Jul02:50JPYMonetary Base y/y36.20%35.60%
04:00NZDANZ Commodity Prices m/m-4.70%
04:30AUDTrade Balance-2.21B-3.89B
06:45JPY10-y Bond Auction0.45|2.7
09:00GBPNationwide HPI m/m0.60%0.30%
10:00EURSpanish Unemployment Change-118.0K
2nd-7thGBPHalifax HPI m/m-0.10%
11:30GBPConstruction PMI56.655.9
12:00EURPPI m/m0.10%-0.10%
TentativeEURFrench 10-y Bond Auction1.28|1.8
TentativeEURSpanish 10-y Bond Auction2.35|1.9
14:30EURECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
15:30USDNon-Farm Employment Change231K280K
USDUnemployment Rate5.40%5.50%
USDAverage Hourly Earnings m/m0.20%0.30%
USDUnemployment Claims270K271K
17:00USDFactory Orders m/m-0.50%-0.40%
17:30USDNatural Gas Storage75B
03-Jul02:30AUDAIG Services Index49.6
04:30AUDRetail Sales m/m0.50%0.00%
04:45CNYHSBC Services PMI53.853.5
10:15EURSpanish Services PMI5858.4
10:45EURItalian Services PMI52.952.5
10:50EURFrench Final Services PMI54.154.1
10:55EURGerman Final Services PMI54.254.2
11:00EURFinal Services PMI54.454.4
11:30GBPServices PMI57.456.5
12:00EURRetail Sales m/m0.20%0.70%


Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

Economic data from Aussie: The Australian dollar has a busy week from Tuesday with speech by RBA Gov. Stevens. Economic data from Australian includes the HIA New home sales, manufacturing and services index and retail sales data.

Canada GDP: The monthly GDP data from Canada is due for release on Tuesday with the median forecasts estimated at 0.1%, after declining -0.2%. The economic calendar is by and large quiet for the most of next week.

Another busy week for the Euro: Consumer Inflation from Spain, Germany and the Eurozone on the whole is due for release early next week. Headline CPI for the Eurozone is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%. The soft headline inflation is likely to put to rest all concerns about a premature end fo the ECB’s QE program. Later in the week, services and manufacturing PMI is also due. The economic data is likely to bring some additional volatility to the Euro cross currencies. But above all, the markets are likely to focus on how the Euro will react after the stunning weekend developments which saw negotiations break down between Greece and its lenders resulting in the Greek premier calling for a referendum on July 5th. (More on this here)

UK GDP: The final revised GDP for the first quarter of this year is due for release on Tuesday. Expectations are for the GDP to modestly rise to 0.4% for the quarter and to 2.5% y/y basis. Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMI are also due later this week with an overall expectation showing a modest increase from previous month.

US Jobs Report: The June jobs report is due for release on Thursday on account of the July 4th holiday. Expectations are bullish with the non-farm employment change expected to show 231k new jobs while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.4% from 5.5% previously. Other economic data ahead of the NFP include the ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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