Weekly Forex Forecast: 15 – 19 June

Jun 15, 4:00 am

The British Pound was the strongest performing currency this week followed by the Japanese Yen coming in at a close second, gaining 1.81% for the week. The Yen, which was previously weaker across the board, got a boost from BoJ’s Kuroda’s comments last week which put a halt to its recent weakness. The Euro, single currency was largely drifting but managed to gain 1.38% despite the Greece debt negotiations showing no progress.

Weekly Spot FX Performance – 12/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)
Weekly Spot FX Performance – 12/06/2015 (Source: Finviz.com)

The Kiwi Dollar simply collapsed last week as the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25bps, bringing its benchmark overnight cash rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. The Kiwi continues to remain under pressure with speculation that another rate cut is very likely this year. Economic data also points to the fact that the period of higher interest rates looks to have, for the time being come to an end.

Fundamentals for the Week 15 – 19 June

DateTimeCurrencyDetailExpectedPrevious
15-Jun02:01GBPRightmove HPI m/m-0.10%
10:00EURGerman Buba President Weidmann Speaks
10:15CHFPPI m/m0.10%-2.10%
CHFRetail Sales y/y-2.20%-2.80%
10:30AUDRBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
12:00EURTrade Balance20.3B19.7B
15:30CADManufacturing Sales m/m-1.30%2.90%
USDEmpire State Manufacturing Index5.83.1
16:00EURECB President Draghi Speaks
16:15USDCapacity Utilization Rate78.30%78.20%
USDIndustrial Production m/m0.20%-0.30%
17:00USDNAHB Housing Market Index5654
23:00USDTIC Long-Term Purchases17.6B
16-Jun00:55AUDRBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
04:30AUDMonetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUDNew Motor Vehicle Sales m/m-1.50%
08:45CHFSECO Economic Forecasts
09:00EURGerman Final CPI m/m0.10%0.10%
11:30GBPCPI y/y0.10%-0.10%
GBPPPI Input m/m0.70%0.40%
GBPRPI y/y1.10%0.90%
GBPCore CPI y/y1.00%0.80%
GBPHPI y/y10.20%9.60%
GBPPPI Output m/m0.10%0.10%
TentativeEUREuropean Court of Justice Ruling
12:00EURGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment37.541.9
EURZEW Economic Sentiment60.361.2
EUREmployment Change q/q0.10%0.10%
15:30CADForeign Securities Purchases22.47B
USDBuilding Permits1.11M1.14M
USDHousing Starts1.10M1.14M
16:30GBPCB Leading Index m/m0.20%
TentativeNZDGDT Price Index-4.30%
17-Jun01:45NZDCurrent Account0.23B-3.19B
02:50JPYTrade Balance-0.17T-0.21T
03:30AUDMI Leading Index m/m0.10%
17th-19thCNYForeign Direct Investment ytd/y10.40%
11:00EURItalian Trade Balance3.27B4.06B
11:30GBPAverage Earnings Index 3m/y2.50%1.90%
GBPClaimant Count Change-12.5K-6.5K
GBPMPC Official Bank Rate Votes0-0-90-0-9
GBPMPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes0-0-90-0-9
GBPUnemployment Rate5.50%5.50%
12:00CHFZEW Economic Expectations-0.1
EURFinal CPI y/y0.30%0.30%
EURFinal Core CPI y/y0.90%0.90%
TentativeEURGerman 10-y Bond Auction0.65|1.3
15:30CADWholesale Sales m/m0.30%0.80%
17:30USDCrude Oil Inventories-6.8M
21:00USDFOMC Economic Projections
USDFOMC Statement
USDFederal Funds Rate<0.25%<0.25%
21:30USDFOMC Press Conference
18-Jun01:45NZDGDP q/q0.60%0.80%
02:05GBPBOE Quarterly Bulletin
04:30AUDRBA Bulletin
07:30CHFSNB Financial Stability Report
09:00CHFTrade Balance2.72B2.86B
10:30CHFLibor Rate-0.75%-0.75%
CHFSNB Monetary Policy Assessment
CHFSNB Press Conference
11:00EURECB Economic Bulletin
11:30GBPRetail Sales m/m0.00%1.20%
12:15EURTargeted LTRO97.8B
TentativeEURSpanish 10-y Bond Auction1.88|3.0
All DayEUREurogroup Meetings
15:30USDCPI m/m0.50%0.10%
USDCore CPI m/m0.20%0.30%
USDUnemployment Claims278K279K
USDCurrent Account-116B-113B
17:00USDPhilly Fed Manufacturing Index8.16.7
USDCB Leading Index m/m0.40%0.70%
17:30USDNatural Gas Storage111B
19-JunTentativeJPYMonetary Policy Statement
07:30JPYAll Industries Activity m/m0.30%-1.30%
09:00EURGerman PPI m/m0.20%0.10%
TentativeJPYBOJ Press Conference
11:00EURCurrent Account18.1B18.6B
11:30GBPPublic Sector Net Borrowing10.2B6.0B
All DayEURECOFIN Meetings
15:30CADCore CPI m/m0.30%0.10%
CADCore Retail Sales m/m0.30%0.50%
CADCPI m/m0.40%-0.10%
CADRetail Sales m/m0.60%0.70%

 

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

Australia RBA Meeting minutes: The RBA will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes of its previously concluded monetary policy where the RBA left interest rates unchanged. The Aussie rallied on the news as the RBA left policy on hold. In this aspect, traders will be looking to the minutes for any clues on the RBA’s future course of action regarding interest rates..

Busy week for CAD: The Canadian dollar see’s a relatively data heavy week with various important economic releases including the monthly CPI data, retail sales and manufacturing sales figures. Recent economic data from Canada has started to show signs of improvement, especially last week’s housing market data and also a better than expected jobs report. In this context, traders will be expecting to see another week of positive data from Canada, which could help support the CAD’s recent strengthening.

SNB Monetary Policy: The Swiss National Bank meets this week for its monetary policy preview, which is likely to see a bit of volatility in the Swiss Franc. While there are no changes expected to the Swiss Libor rate, the tone of the SNB will play an important role going forward.

TLTRO, ECJ Ruling and Draghi: The Eurozone economic calendar also sees a busy week ahead with the ECB President, Draghi due to deliver a speech, testifying on the monetary policy to the European Parliament. The ECJ is also expected to give its verdict on the ECB’s OMT program (a mini QE program). Later in the week, the ECB will also be announcing the TLTRO auction details, all of which could bring significant volatility to the single currency.

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John has over 8 years of experience specializing in the currency markets, tracking the macroeconomic and geopolitical developments shaping the financial markets. John applies a mix of fundamental and technical analysis and has a special interest in inter-market analysis and global politics.

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