Weekly Forex Forecast: 04 – 08 May
The US Dollar saw a roller coaster ride last week as with most of the currency pairs. However, towards the end of the week, the Greenback managed to regain some of its lost ground, while the previously gaining currencies such as the Aussie and the Kiwi dollars eased back from their gains. The Yen turned out to be the weakest currency of the week, losing ground across the board as most of the currencies that rallied managed to keep their gains against the Yen.
The Euro, single currency was the star performer of the week as the currency managed to rally across the board, gaining over 3% for the week, followed up the Swiss Franc.
Fundamentals for the Week 04 – 08 May
Date | Time | Currency | Detail | Forecast | Previous |
04-05-15 | 03:30 | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.40% | |
04:00 | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | 4.60% | ||
04:30 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | -1.70% | -3.20% | |
04:30 | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements m/m | -1.40% | ||
04:45 | CNY | HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 49.2 | |
10:15 | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 | 54.3 | |
10:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 48.2 | 47.9 | |
10:45 | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 53.4 | 53.3 | |
10:50 | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 48.4 | 48.4 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.9 | |
11:00 | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.9 | |
11:30 | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence | 19.5 | 20 | |
17:00 | USD | Factory Orders m/m | 2.10% | 0.20% | |
19:25 | USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||
02:30 | AUD | AIG Services Index | 50.2 | ||
05-05-15 | 04:30 | AUD | Trade Balance | -0.98B | -1.26B |
07:30 | AUD | Cash Rate | 2.00% | 2.25% | |
AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||
09:45 | EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | -23.4B | ||
10:00 | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | -64.8K | -60.2K | |
5th-7th | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.30% | 0.40% | |
11:30 | GBP | Construction PMI | 57.6 | 57.8 | |
12:00 | EUR | EU Economic Forecasts | |||
EUR | PPI m/m | 0.30% | 0.50% | ||
15:30 | CAD | Trade Balance | -0.6B | -1.0B | |
USD | Trade Balance | -39.2B | -35.4B | ||
16:45 | USD | Final Services PMI | 57.8 | 57.8 | |
17:00 | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 56.2 | 56.5 | |
USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 51.8 | 51.3 | ||
Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -3.60% | ||
19:45 | CAD | Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks | |||
01:45 | NZD | Employment Change q/q | 0.80% | 1.20% | |
06-05-15 | NZD | Unemployment Rate | 5.50% | 5.70% | |
NZD | Labor Cost Index q/q | 0.40% | 0.50% | ||
02:01 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y | -2.10% | ||
04:00 | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | 1.10% | ||
04:30 | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.40% | 0.70% | |
04:45 | CNY | HSBC Services PMI | 53.1 | 52.3 | |
10:15 | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 57.4 | 57.3 | |
10:45 | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | |
10:50 | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 50.8 | 50.8 | |
10:55 | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 54.4 | 54.4 | |
11:00 | EUR | Final Services PMI | 53.7 | 53.7 | |
11:30 | GBP | Services PMI | 58.6 | 58.9 | |
12:00 | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | -0.40% | -0.20% | |
15:15 | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 192K | 189K | |
15:30 | USD | Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q | -1.70% | -2.20% | |
USD | Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q | 4.00% | 4.10% | ||
16:15 | USD | Fed Chair Yellen Speaks | |||
17:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI | 50.1 | 47.9 | |
17:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.9M | ||
20:30 | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | |||
02:30 | AUD | AIG Construction Index | 50.1 | ||
07-05-15 | 02:50 | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 34.30% | 35.20% |
04:30 | AUD | Employment Change | 4.0K | 37.7K | |
AUD | Unemployment Rate | 6.20% | 6.10% | ||
08:45 | CHF | SECO Consumer Climate | -11 | -6 | |
09:00 | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | 1.60% | -0.90% | |
09:45 | EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
EUR | French Trade Balance | -3.5B | -3.4B | ||
10:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 522.3B | ||
11:10 | EUR | Retail PMI | 48.6 | ||
All Day | GBP | Parliamentary Elections | |||
Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | 1.28|2.3 | ||
14:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | 6.40% | ||
15:30 | CAD | Building Permits m/m | -0.90% | ||
USD | Unemployment Claims | 275K | 262K | ||
17:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 81B | ||
22:00 | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | 15.8B | 15.5B | |
02:50 | JPY | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
08-05-15 | 04:30 | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | ||
Tentative | CNY | Trade Balance | 34.5B | 3.1B | |
08:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 3.20% | 3.20% | |
09:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | 0.40% | 0.20% | |
EUR | German Trade Balance | 20.3B | 19.7B | ||
10:15 | CHF | CPI m/m | 0.10% | 0.30% | |
11:00 | EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | 0.30% | 0.60% | |
11:30 | GBP | Trade Balance | -9.8B | -10.3B | |
15:15 | CAD | Housing Starts | 187K | 190K | |
15:30 | CAD | Employment Change | 28.7K | ||
CAD | Unemployment Rate | 6.80% | |||
USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 231K | 126K | ||
USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.40% | 5.50% | ||
USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.20% | 0.30% | ||
17:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.30% | 0.30% | |
04:30 | CNY | CPI y/y | 1.60% | 1.40% | |
09-05-15 | CNY | PPI y/y | -4.60% | -4.60% |
Currencies/Events to Watch this Week
RBA Interest rate decision: There were rumors last week about RBA leaks to some select media outlets about a May rate cut, which was the case with its February rate cut. However, taking these rumors with a pinch of salt, the markets are heading into another closely contested RBA meeting. Economic data does not warrant any rate cuts at the moment however the strengthening Australian dollar is something of a concern, but to expect a rate cut to weaken the Australian dollar is a case that is farfetched. Expect to see some volatility as we expect the RBA to put rates on hold but severely talk down the Aussie from further strengthening. Also on tap later in the week will be the monthly jobs reports from Australia with forecasts of a 6.2% increase in unemployment rate from 6.1%. Retail sales, new home sales make up the rest of the data for the Aussie this week.
Will the Euro keep its gains this week? There is not much of major economic events from Europe this week and it is likely that focus will shift to the Greece negotiations. Last week, it was reported that Greece would strike a deal by Sunday and the markets took this news in their stride. However, a lot is left to be seen and the Euro is likely to be influenced by these factors the coming week.
UK Election Week: Economic data this week from the UK is light, but the major focus will be the UK general elections due to be held on May 7th. The British Pound after rallying last week started losing ground since Friday’s session and is likely to remain very subdued into this week as well until the election results are posted. Consensus is expecting to see a coalition government being formed with a lot of unsaid variables coming into play.
Data heavy week for the US: After a relatively quiet week or weeks, the US Dollar will head into an important data week with the monthly non-farm payrolls data and a speech by Janet Yellen. It is expected that the unemployment rate will dip a point lower from 5.5% to 5.4% and the job gains are expected to see a number around 231k after March’s dismal report. Will the data help revive the US Dollar or will investors continue to extend their selling pressure on the Greenback?