The Forex daily summary for 31 March features the following key notes:
- Australia private sector credit m/m 0.5% vs. 0.5%; y/y 6.2% vs. 6.3%
- Germany retail sales m/m -0.5% vs. -0.7%; y/y 3.6% vs. 3.4%
- Spain retail sales y/y 2.6% vs. 4.1%
- Germany unemployment change -15k vs. -12k; unemployment rate 6.4% vs. 6.5%
- UK GDP q/q – 3rd estimate: 0.6% vs. 0.5%; GDP y/y 3% vs. 2.7%;
- Eurozone CPI y/y -0.1% vs. -0.1%; Core CPI y/y 0.6% vs. 0.7%
- Eurozone unemployment rate 11.3% vs. 11.2%
- Canada GDP m/m -0.1% vs. -0.2%; y/y 2.4% vs. 2.4%
Later
- FOMC Lockhart speech
- US S&P Case Shiller index
- US Chicago PMI
- US consumer confidence
- New Zealand global dairy price index
Currency markets opened today without any major news releases from Asia, with the exception of Australia’s private sector credit, which was mixed and did little to help the Aussie dollar which was already under selling pressure since yesterday. The Kiwi dollar was also subdued and was seen trading back near the 0.74 levels ahead of the Global Dairy Price index due to be released anytime today.
The Yen continued to strengthen across the board especially against weaker currencies such as the Aussie and the Euro. Against the Greenback, USDJPY managed to rally to test the previous break out level at 120.16 as noted in our daily technical analysis. The USDJPY currency pair could now swing either ways, with a break out to the upside targeting 120.465 and 120.76 while a break below the daily pivot could see further weakness pointing to another test to 118.414.
The European trading session saw a lot of economic data being released across the Eurozone and the UK.
While retail sales managed to firm up in Germany, Spanish retail sales fell below estimates. However, German labor market showed marked improvement with the German unemployment rate improving to 6.4%. The positive news was however overshadowed with the main event, the Eurozone CPI which fell below expectations on the core, rising 0.6% below estimates of 0.7%. The Euro which was weaker since late yesterday continued to decline to reach the target of 1.073 levels as noted in our daily analysis. The currency pair could see further declines, with the potential to test back to 1.06344 levels before stabilizing.
From the UK, the fourth quarter GDP managed to rise 0.6%, modestly above expectations while on an annual basis, the UK saw a GDP growth rate of 3%. The Pound was however little changed on the news as the Cable looks to establish resistance near 1.482, the strong support that was broken recently. Downside moves are likely to see another support encountered at 1.47225 levels. Overall the Cable continues to range for the most part with the sentiment inclined to the downside.
The US session saw the release of Canada’s GDP which shrank -0.1%, but above estimates of -0.2%. Annual GDP was also lower at 2.4% down from 2.8% previously. The Canadian Dollar managed to make a few gains across the board, but overall the GDP data is nothing to cheer for.
Later this evening, economic data from the US is likely to keep the markets busy with the housing price index, consumer confidence and Chicago PMI among a few of the major releases due today.
