Forex Weekly Overview – 17th – 21st November

Nov 17, 8:18 am
17th - 21st November

While most of last week saw little to no market moving events for most of the week, Friday’s price action is most likely to continue through the coming week backed up by some key fundamentals as well.

Fundamentals for the Week 17th – 21st November

Date Event Estimates
17 November Japan Preliminary GDP q/q 0.5%
Japan Preliminary price index y/y 1.9%
German Bundesbank monthly report
ECB Draghi Speech
US Capacity utilization rate 79.3%
18 November RBA monetary policy minutes
RBA Gov. Stevens speech
UK CPI y/y 1.2%
UK PPI Input m/m -1.4%
UK Core CPI y/y 1.6%
German ZEW economic sentiment 0.9
Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment 4.3
US PPI m/m -0.1%
US Core PPI m/m 0.2%
19 November Japan Monetary policy statement
BoJ Press conference
BoE official bank rate votes
US building permits 1.04Mn
US housing starts 1.03Mn
FOMC Meeting minutes
20 November China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI 50.2
German PPI m/m -0.1%
French flash manufacturing PMI 48.9
French flash services PMI 48.6
German flash manufacturing PMI 51.5
German services PMI 54.5
UK retail sales m/m 0.4%
Canada wholesale sales m/m 0.7%
US CPI m/m -0.1%
Philly Fed manufacturing index 18.9
US existing home sales 5.16Mn
21 November ECB Draghi Speech
Canada Core CPI m/m 0.2%

 

Currencies/Events to Watch this Week

  • Japan will be releasing the quarterly GDP data which is expected show the third quarter increase 0.5%, after a decline of -1.8% last quarter. Also, the Yen has been volatile to the comments from Japan’s cabinet members in regards to the snap elections and delay in the sales tax hike, both of the issues likely to be addressed this coming week.
  • As the markets start to get jittery on USD long positions, this week’s FOMC meeting minutes will hold key as investors look to clues for interest rate hike and inflation expectations. The US will also be releasing the monthly inflation data which is expected to decline -0.1%
  • The UK CPI data and retail sales will likely weigh in on the British Pound. The Sterling, which weakened on BoE’s inflation outlook expectations last week, could potentially decline further should inflation fall well below estimates. Retail sales data, which has been week, is expected to show a 0.4% increase for the previous month, which could again be a factor to look into.
  • From the Eurozone flash estimates from France and Germany will be the key event to follow along with the German ZEW economic sentiment which declined considerably last month. Expectations calling for a rise in the economic sentiment for the country could be a critical event to follow. Another decline in economic sentiment could weaken the Euro which has been resilient, trading mostly off better than expected GDP and CPI data released last week. ECB’s President, Mario Draghi is also expected to give his speeches during the week which could bring volatility to the Euro currencies.

FX Majors Weekly Pivots

  R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3
EURUSD 1.2733 1.2639 1.2581 1.2487 1.243 1.2336 1.2278
GBPUSD 1.6231 1.6087 1.5879 1.5736 1.5527 1.5384 1.5175
USDCAD 1.1504 1.1453 1.1366 1.1315 1.1229 1.1178 1.1091
USDJPY 120.388 118.606 117.424 115.642 114.46 112.678 111.496
USDCHF 0.9796 0.9748 0.9669 0.9621 0.9542 0.9495 0.9416

 

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